Much more is in the new plane ingredients than first suspected. Timing of an 797 announcement is more of timing when Boeing will rewrite its airplane family line up. The Max has become Boeing's odd duck on the pond. It has made almost every conceivable change in keeping with its family commonality theme. The 777X will be built on 787 technology. The 797 will be built on 787 technology as well. A new clean sheet 737 design for 2030 will be built on 797 technology.
It was long ago decided the 737 was too small of a frame to be efficiently made out of plastic body. A lot has happened since that conclusion and a lot more will happen during the next twelve years before Boeing can get its arms around the single aisle model, which Airbus currently has stolen the march over Boeing in the last decade. Airbus has made some mistakes with its single aisle strategy. Boeing has made more single aisle strategic mistakes.
The big error Airbus made was to sell every customer an A320 without regard to its mismanaged backlog. Some customers will be long gone before it could even get an A320 NEO delivered. Airbus will have to increase its single aisle production capacity over the next few years. It will have to put the A-380 to bed before it can consider a new clean sheet single aisle version in the 2030's. It would rather see what Boeing will do with a 797 design before weighing in on any new clean sheet designs
On the other hand, Boeing neglected the single aisle segment during its first wide body building program starting in 2005. The 757 was turned lose from Boeing while Airbus stole potential Boeing customers with its A321. Boeing was disorganized from the leadership level on down. A lot of Boeing changes occurred during the first five years of the millennium at a critical moment. Now Airbus is seeing a lot of corporate changes going on within its world and is weaken for applying aggressive action with new clean sheet designs until 2025. Boeing will have a new 797 flying by 2025. The 777X will be old hat in its line-up by then. The only unfinished Boeing Business remains for the 737.
The problem for the 737 and the Max program was composites were not efficient for a smaller bodied aircraft during 2012. It would not improve single aisle performance enough for the expense of using it in its frame. By 2025 there will be even lighter and stronger composites available offered to the 797 program which a 737 type could also use efficiently for its own remake. The problem for all single aisle airplanes are they are too narrow for big passengers. Today, single aisle airplanes are built for 5'7" passengers weighing at most 150 pounds. Air travel needs to adjust to the human reality.
The latest 797 proposal floated is a flying oval body made from composite material. A 737 design in 2030 could use lessons learned from the 797 design making the clean sheet 737 having a wider area for passenger going across. The landing gear of course would give it a high enough stance for larger engine circumference and more jet power efficiency. The design engineers at Boeing are all scrambling for the 797 golden BB design hitting its target in this high flying world. The 797 is the key for a future 737. It is taking Boeing a long time for the 797 announcement because it is actually in the hunt for two airplane types that will mutually synergise each other in the market place. The big problem is for cargo area which is reduced using a flying oval body. That problem has five more years of time for innovative body design and solving any space issues.
The 737 redesign is waiting for cheaper, stronger and lighter reinforced plastic body materials for 160-200 passengers. The 797 will fill the gap above 200 seats. Current process maturity and ongoing innovation is close to becoming the core elements for a new 737 clean sheet design from the 797 project.
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Sunday, January 14, 2018
Has China Made A Business Case For The A-380?
Like the recent retirements of America's 747's from airlines without any reorders, Airbus is faced with a similar problem. It needs A-380 orders sooner rather than later and it went to China for any deal it can muster for its endangered A-380 program. As of October 31, 2017 Airbus has only a 100 unit backlog since it already has delivered 217 of its 317 ordered A-380's. Boeing's mission was accomplished as it diverted enough orders away from the A-380 order book with about 136 of the 747-8 types to its own order book. Boeing has delivered 124 of its 747-8's since first delivery. Airbus would love to have those 136 Boeing orders in its books as the A-380 is going the way of the Dinosaur just like its competitor's 747 program.
Boeing always always knew the 747-8 program was a Pyrrhic wrench thrown at Airbus in an attempt at denying Airbus revenue throughout the A-380 program duration. The 747-8 is probably resting in pieces at Everett Wa, facility at this time with a Mission Accomplished banner waving over the big production factory doors for the 747.
Airbus has flown to China with hat in hand and gifts that may impress an emperor if one still existed in China. If Airbus would give China a two fer deal, then China would gladly buy some A-380's, but not enough to save Airbus' face over the whole Jumbo debacle. A sweeping deal would be 50 A-380's at half price of list for China. It wouldn't save the A-380 program over-all and would only extend building them for a couple of years.
No press has reported A-380 deal progress from the Airbus visit at this late date:
News release from Airline geeks:
"Neither side has commented on the possible deal or details of it. Macron concluded his visit on Saturday with no announcement being made immediately upon his return. It is, however, unusual that a government makes the sale of a commercial aircraft part of a state visit agenda. While Airbus receives a lot of support from the French and German governments, politicians have so far been hesitant to engage in sales pitches themselves."
Airbus wants a 100 unit deal as the sales visit draws to a close. No word has come from the talks only muted speculations. Macron is home with what appears as a big goose egg on his accomplishments for Airbus. However, a deal could come later after negotiations are completed by the principles involved through these meetings. The best hope is Macron laid out what the French government is willing to do for China. Silence after his return home is not promising. Airbus remains behind for wheeling and dealing its way towards saving face.
If China has a business plan for its special needs, then a deal will be made, but if it can't find an A-380 plan for its masses with 500 seats at a chop, then it becomes a Wonton soup festival served with French butter. Silence is a key Airbus tactic until the last day of an airshow or end of year order announcements. Its January and the next big airshow is months away. Macron went home to sit on his hands and China has asked Airbus for the US missile defense system launch codes before a deal is done.
The Chinese business case is flying masses on Airbus' A-380's at a 737 price of operation and of course those missile codes just mentioned after Macron went home.
The real case may be made by Emirates who happens to own 100 A-380's and is the same number under consideration by China. Airbus fears an Emirate bolt from the Airbus fold with this model type. China could ask Emirates a few questions and it may affect a Chinese decision for the A-380.
Boeing always always knew the 747-8 program was a Pyrrhic wrench thrown at Airbus in an attempt at denying Airbus revenue throughout the A-380 program duration. The 747-8 is probably resting in pieces at Everett Wa, facility at this time with a Mission Accomplished banner waving over the big production factory doors for the 747.
Airbus has flown to China with hat in hand and gifts that may impress an emperor if one still existed in China. If Airbus would give China a two fer deal, then China would gladly buy some A-380's, but not enough to save Airbus' face over the whole Jumbo debacle. A sweeping deal would be 50 A-380's at half price of list for China. It wouldn't save the A-380 program over-all and would only extend building them for a couple of years.
No press has reported A-380 deal progress from the Airbus visit at this late date:
News release from Airline geeks:
"Neither side has commented on the possible deal or details of it. Macron concluded his visit on Saturday with no announcement being made immediately upon his return. It is, however, unusual that a government makes the sale of a commercial aircraft part of a state visit agenda. While Airbus receives a lot of support from the French and German governments, politicians have so far been hesitant to engage in sales pitches themselves."
Airbus wants a 100 unit deal as the sales visit draws to a close. No word has come from the talks only muted speculations. Macron is home with what appears as a big goose egg on his accomplishments for Airbus. However, a deal could come later after negotiations are completed by the principles involved through these meetings. The best hope is Macron laid out what the French government is willing to do for China. Silence after his return home is not promising. Airbus remains behind for wheeling and dealing its way towards saving face.
If China has a business plan for its special needs, then a deal will be made, but if it can't find an A-380 plan for its masses with 500 seats at a chop, then it becomes a Wonton soup festival served with French butter. Silence is a key Airbus tactic until the last day of an airshow or end of year order announcements. Its January and the next big airshow is months away. Macron went home to sit on his hands and China has asked Airbus for the US missile defense system launch codes before a deal is done.
The Chinese business case is flying masses on Airbus' A-380's at a 737 price of operation and of course those missile codes just mentioned after Macron went home.
The real case may be made by Emirates who happens to own 100 A-380's and is the same number under consideration by China. Airbus fears an Emirate bolt from the Airbus fold with this model type. China could ask Emirates a few questions and it may affect a Chinese decision for the A-380.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
Airbus Attacks Boeing’s Flank With Bombardier
It was noted Airbus bought control of Bombardier C300
project for a song. It was an obvious ploy to make Boeing flinch and become
infuriated. Mission accomplished. The Bombardier product will go forward
nipping at the 737 heels. Hence the subsidized deal with Delta. Boeing parries
the move by calling “foul” to US Trade governance and quickly a 220% tariff.
The counter move is an Airbus buy out of Bombardier C series.
Meanwhile back at the Seattle Stud farm. Boeing decides on
what kind of hard ball it will now play against Airbus. Embraer comes to its
collective mind in a New York minute. First an Embraer buyout must be
accomplished! It’s the only airline manufacturer available with a respected 100
seat model. Boeing will have to pay more than Airbus did with its flanking
move. The Brazilian airline has more negotiation work with the clock ticking
and many Boeing projects are hanging for the plucking. Airbus caught Boeing as
a crucial moment which Boeing probably already had considered as a possibility
but hoped it wouldn’t come true.
The war heats up. Back in 1863 at Gettysburg, a massive
battle took place during the American civil war. The "South" lost its swagger among the thousands killed in action. But not before some flanking moves occurred.
Barlow’s Knoll, Culp’s Hill, Seminary Ridge, and Little Round Top to
name a few.
The battle raged on for three days annihilating troops and battle strength. The South could not ever replenish after the fight and held on for two more years until capitulating from being out of gas. Those who had the most, won that bitter war. The South was just beaten down into a submissive position for which it could not recover. General Lee was a southern leader who signed off at Appomattox because there was no other conclusion.
Little Round Top Flanking Turned the Battle for The Union.
The battle raged on for three days annihilating troops and battle strength. The South could not ever replenish after the fight and held on for two more years until capitulating from being out of gas. Those who had the most, won that bitter war. The South was just beaten down into a submissive position for which it could not recover. General Lee was a southern leader who signed off at Appomattox because there was no other conclusion.
This is where the airplane wars have spread. The battle is
for the single aisle under 130 seats. A flanking move by Airbus with Bombardier
has caused Boeing to cover itself with an Embraer attempt. If Boeing becomes successful
with an Embraer acquisition, it will have to have a mutual strengthening move
by both makers. It appears Boeing will take on Embraer engineers for its own
797 project. It mutually will strengthen the Brazilian maker going into Asian
markets and other world market with the Embraer as Boeing would have a family of aircraft
landing at airports from Boise Idaho to London-Heathrow.
The flight deck on the
Embraer would become Boeing's, matching all its other aircraft deck’s layout. It
would become a punch in the Airbus gut (flanking). After-all, that’s the desired
affect by Boeing after Airbus stole the C-series away by just a traffic jam away
from the New York State ferry system.
Isn’t Dorval Ca. kind of a commuter ride from Ottawa, Canada’s capital?
Isn’t it coincidental that a government subsidy doesn’t have far to go from
Ottawa to Dorval? Boeing knows Airbus resources would make a competitive
Bombardier aircraft. Boeing also knows Boeing resources would make Embraer a world
player. That brings us all back to “old school” and the flanking move. Boeing
will own a chunk of Embraer after “everyone” gets what it wants out of such a
proposition.
The Brazilian/US government will get something and both Boeing and
Embraer get a stake. The workers will get more work of course. The deal will
happened by year’s end. Airbus is flanked and that’s the whole point.
The
outcome will come at the end of “day three” of the Gettysburg’s field of war.
Its not only an Airbus choice, it is its only choice. Greyhound bus company Ca. uses its government subsidy for carrying a packet down the road containing a Bombardier subsidy. Canadian aspirations has a plan but its not polite.
Friday, January 12, 2018
Boeing Changes Its Public Tactics
This blog perceives a change in Boeing's management of public relations. This is long over due since Airbus plays a game of big announcements long after Boeing reals off a massive order announcements at the Dubai Airshow 2017 for 175 of its Max aircraft where Airbus is only seen at the Dubai finish line with "fewer" orders. The next big deal from Airbus comes with an announced 430 A320-NEO's near the end of the year. Airbus caught Boeing in a Mouth Breathing Awkward Moment (MBAM !!!).
Its no wonder that Boeing considers changing announcement strategy when considering how Airbus likes to "play the game" with its customers. Overall, the final numbers will bear out the mega builders competition in some sort of conclusion. However, Airbus seeks a bang-for-the-buck announcement format on newly minted orders after Boeing commits its own data causing MBAM moments.
Boeing on the other hand has held a policy of letting the customer run the announcement show through allowing customers the option of identifying any new finalized orders by name. Once a deal is signed Boeing can announce an order by customer name or restricts itself as unidentified depending on what the customer wants. Traditionally, Boeing has updated its own order reporting as once a week update. The order reporting is changing in 2018 to a once a month order book update on its web site, making it more difficult for Airbus to play the announcement game when once a month reporting is installed by Boeing. In other words an Airbus announcement of 430 single aisle ordered will compare with a Boeing monthly total making the impact of a deal of this magnitude seem more realistic.
The year ending for 2017 is still counting on the Airbus side of its accountants as they still are working on boosting Airbus order numbers for its stockholders. Boeing reported a net 912 commercial aircraft orders. Next week Airbus said it will release its 2017 order number. The net number is key in this comparison.
Without Airbus December numbers, it reports 333 net orders through November 30, 2017. Boeing also reported 912 net orders by years end.
What tells the observer is this, Airbus needs another 149 net orders and adding the 430 A320's just announced for matching Boeing's order book in unit numbers. The Airbus business model requires more orders added next week beyond the 430 A320 orders counted on, which is already reported by its press bulletins. Using "Airbus Data" from end of November requires it must show December orders having a total of 579 new orders booked in December to match the Boeing net of 912 units. Airbus could do it if it has sandbagged 600 orders for December during 2017.
Its no wonder that Boeing considers changing announcement strategy when considering how Airbus likes to "play the game" with its customers. Overall, the final numbers will bear out the mega builders competition in some sort of conclusion. However, Airbus seeks a bang-for-the-buck announcement format on newly minted orders after Boeing commits its own data causing MBAM moments.
Boeing on the other hand has held a policy of letting the customer run the announcement show through allowing customers the option of identifying any new finalized orders by name. Once a deal is signed Boeing can announce an order by customer name or restricts itself as unidentified depending on what the customer wants. Traditionally, Boeing has updated its own order reporting as once a week update. The order reporting is changing in 2018 to a once a month order book update on its web site, making it more difficult for Airbus to play the announcement game when once a month reporting is installed by Boeing. In other words an Airbus announcement of 430 single aisle ordered will compare with a Boeing monthly total making the impact of a deal of this magnitude seem more realistic.
The year ending for 2017 is still counting on the Airbus side of its accountants as they still are working on boosting Airbus order numbers for its stockholders. Boeing reported a net 912 commercial aircraft orders. Next week Airbus said it will release its 2017 order number. The net number is key in this comparison.
Without Airbus December numbers, it reports 333 net orders through November 30, 2017. Boeing also reported 912 net orders by years end.
What tells the observer is this, Airbus needs another 149 net orders and adding the 430 A320's just announced for matching Boeing's order book in unit numbers. The Airbus business model requires more orders added next week beyond the 430 A320 orders counted on, which is already reported by its press bulletins. Using "Airbus Data" from end of November requires it must show December orders having a total of 579 new orders booked in December to match the Boeing net of 912 units. Airbus could do it if it has sandbagged 600 orders for December during 2017.
Tuesday, January 9, 2018
Boeing Books 2017 Net Orders
Boeing ends up with 912 net orders. The important part is Boeing boosted its single aisle order book with 745 737's combining NG and the Max numbers. It also booked 94 net 787 falling short of a book to bill ratio of one for its type. The Book to Bill Ratio stands at 69% for 2017. However, 2018 will record more 787 than markets may expect with several large orders pending in the commitment slot.
Airbus will take a few more days compiling a comparison as it has not posted its December numbers at this time. The order for 430 A320's have not been added. Other orders from different models maybe added when it posts its order counts. The order battle will be closer than indicated from a sluggish Airbus order pace established during the year. Airbus typically waits (tries) for the end of the year to post surprises after Boeing posts it numbers. It's about the game!
Airbus will take a few more days compiling a comparison as it has not posted its December numbers at this time. The order for 430 A320's have not been added. Other orders from different models maybe added when it posts its order counts. The order battle will be closer than indicated from a sluggish Airbus order pace established during the year. Airbus typically waits (tries) for the end of the year to post surprises after Boeing posts it numbers. It's about the game!
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Boeing's 2017 Order Wrap Includes 2-787-9's
Royal Air Moroc Signed For Two 787-9's today.
Boeing should settle in at 844 net units with 971 gross orders. This suggesting a strong 2018 order year. No prediction here except for a 797 announcement should push Boeing beyond 1,000 units ordered next year.
Monday, December 11, 2017
"Skalkaho" Is a rough scribble through Chapter 6
The link provided takes you Skalkaho's introduction were all chapters can be accessed by several methods.
Primary One: is found on the links provided below the main body found on the page Introduction.
Alternate-2: is found by Clicking on the upper left corner on the word "Skalkaho" found on the upper left introduction page and is also found just above the words "A Journey in Adventure".
Clicking it will take you to a list of chapters/postings showing five chapters at a time on this page. The other chapters not visible can be access by clicking on the "More Post" button at the very center-bottom of the Skalkaho chapter/pages link mentioned (in the upper left corner as stated in instruction 2).
Example: More Post
Primary One: is found on the links provided below the main body found on the page Introduction.
Alternate-2: is found by Clicking on the upper left corner on the word "Skalkaho" found on the upper left introduction page and is also found just above the words "A Journey in Adventure".
Clicking it will take you to a list of chapters/postings showing five chapters at a time on this page. The other chapters not visible can be access by clicking on the "More Post" button at the very center-bottom of the Skalkaho chapter/pages link mentioned (in the upper left corner as stated in instruction 2).
Example: More Post
It All Seems Like A 767
It all seems like a restart of the 767 passenger version is eminent. Sans new technology engines it will install new weight saving components replacing the older versions or former generation "heavier" parts. The electronics bay could have micro seized foot prints traveling throughout the same old 767 air frame. Saving a ton here or there would make a newly minted 767 a respectable flying example in air for passengers. The A-330 program tried its NEO routine with limited market response. The 767 program is even hoping for a similar response but only as a place holder and not an augmentation to its own wide body line of aircraft.
The A-330 erodes its sibling mate the A-350 in the market place and does not help either model well. As few orders for A-330 NEO were made and fewer orders for the A-350 occured when airline ordered a few of the A-330 NEO's instead of the A-350 as a cheap alternative.
The 767 restart rumor makes sense if the 797 is not ready for a prime time announcement. Those who may order a re-surging 767 model may also be an early customers for the 797. They may also operate older 767's in its fleet today. Boeing is poised to launch a 797 within its own time slot. All the customer wrinkles will be retired before such a launch announcement and all the Boeing innovations intended for the 797 will be resolved. It sounds like ten years before the 797 delivers. Hence the rumor of a 767 restart has some legs to the story. A renewed 767 is no augmentation of its popular 787 but it is a bridge to the 797's unannounced program.
Boeing would hope to sell about 200 of its renewed 767 as a segue for its 797 announcement in 2020. The ten year entry into service mark is about right before a 797 is ready to go. It would allow time for first delivered 797 matriculation into its fleet over an additional five years thus bringing a renewed 767 retirement fifteen years out from its delivery.
Boeing doesn't hint about things as substantial as a dead 767 passenger program renewal, unless some serious wheeling and dealing has taken place in the background. The North American trifecta of United, Delta and American airlines has expressed interest in its 797 model. The all have 767 experience and they all have an established market for a 5,000 range of service. Coincidentally, it fits the 797 profile that has bantered about in the press. The deal making could conceivably offer a low priced 767 now and a fixed price 797 into the indefinite future. A one to one order pairing with the 767 and 797 is a possibility. A 797 launch time could be pushed out further building more momentum for its announcement moment. The 767 rumors are more of an unannounced reality.
The A-330 erodes its sibling mate the A-350 in the market place and does not help either model well. As few orders for A-330 NEO were made and fewer orders for the A-350 occured when airline ordered a few of the A-330 NEO's instead of the A-350 as a cheap alternative.
The 767 restart rumor makes sense if the 797 is not ready for a prime time announcement. Those who may order a re-surging 767 model may also be an early customers for the 797. They may also operate older 767's in its fleet today. Boeing is poised to launch a 797 within its own time slot. All the customer wrinkles will be retired before such a launch announcement and all the Boeing innovations intended for the 797 will be resolved. It sounds like ten years before the 797 delivers. Hence the rumor of a 767 restart has some legs to the story. A renewed 767 is no augmentation of its popular 787 but it is a bridge to the 797's unannounced program.
Boeing would hope to sell about 200 of its renewed 767 as a segue for its 797 announcement in 2020. The ten year entry into service mark is about right before a 797 is ready to go. It would allow time for first delivered 797 matriculation into its fleet over an additional five years thus bringing a renewed 767 retirement fifteen years out from its delivery.
Boeing doesn't hint about things as substantial as a dead 767 passenger program renewal, unless some serious wheeling and dealing has taken place in the background. The North American trifecta of United, Delta and American airlines has expressed interest in its 797 model. The all have 767 experience and they all have an established market for a 5,000 range of service. Coincidentally, it fits the 797 profile that has bantered about in the press. The deal making could conceivably offer a low priced 767 now and a fixed price 797 into the indefinite future. A one to one order pairing with the 767 and 797 is a possibility. A 797 launch time could be pushed out further building more momentum for its announcement moment. The 767 rumors are more of an unannounced reality.
Saturday, December 9, 2017
Menu Airline The New Way To Fly
New airlines have found a way to encroach upon legacy airline routes. In this case, a look at transatlantic carriers is a good example. Much like a restaurant, the menu airline allows each customer to order off the menu according to a customers taste, price and need. Legacy airlines may sell a ticket for $499 but a menu airline could sell a ticket as low as $99 going from Boston to London. The $99 reserves a spot on the airplane where the real browsing on the menu starts and trip price is not noticed. After all the seat cost $99.
- Needing luggage ? $39.99 per one standard bag
- Wanting food? $39.99 for two meals
- Adding entertainment or computer connectivity? $19.99 for the trip.
- Needing full Concierge service during departing or arrival? $39.99
Total added values= $140 added on ticket price of $99 during a budget airlines special promotion. This could go higher if a "discount" airline starting seat price is $199.
The above list is short and a passenger may have an option for the full buffet. An offering one price for key services during travel, but that price would not include all its offered services. The point of sale remains the seat price. The Customer culture is eager for that price and nothing else. They will pay for the extras without notice as so conditioned by traditional travel ticketing.
The menu offers a passenger a $99 ride and that's it. A ride, but the six hour ride would not even include a napkin for the seat. Its another way of marketing a new airline past the legacy airlines already entrenched on a primary course. Travelers compare ticket prices not services offered. A restaurant offers a steak for $6.99 but the salad and a potato costs another $5.99. The $12.99 restaurant is shied away by those cost conscience travelers who only look at the $6.99 price on the menu for a slab of cooked meat.
A menu airline could cost some serious money unless you analyze what you want or need throughout your travel status. Travel wise customers will wear what they will need for a 24 hour trip there and back. A vacationer will pay for full service because its part of the experience of enjoying time off. The budget airline hopes you are traveling for pleasure. Per day business allowance pays for the lowest cost seat. You will need business expense approval to plug in the computer.
Thursday, December 7, 2017
Boeing Makes 159 Jet Sales During November
Boeing order below indicate a Robust book order tally for November. None of which includes what the Dubai Airshow. It is hoped Boeing will book those orders before January 2018.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)