Why did Emirates announce the signing for 150 of the Boeing 777X types just few weeks before the show? This is a pondering blog today, the why's are hoped to be answered in a speculative fashion. First, let's set the table for this speculation. Normally an order of this stature is set for a big airshows, like Farnborough's biannual event. The other being the Paris expose. Hence every year there is an opportunity for bragging rights for either Boeing or Airbus. This long sought order by Boeing was announced at the Dubai announcement party when it rolled out the 777X as a launch. 250 orders and commitments sprung forth as a rebuttal to Airbus. The commercial verdict was supremely positive, and Boeing has been moving quietly and swiftly towards those commitments announced at Dubai. Emirates could have waited another two weeks to announce the consummation of its order with Boeing at Farnborough, but did not. This triggers speculation and anticipation for the show itself since that cat is out of the bag.
The second observation, is the single aisle market, which has had a robust three years of stacking both Boeing and Airbus orders upon the market place. What remains to be ordered or committed is at Farborough this year, which will be not be an eye brow raising event, when maybe 200-300 single aisle, in combined sales, are announced for both Mega builders.
The wide body account is going through a Sea Change moment as customers re calibrate its needs for twin aisle by type and size. What will be important is where that sea change will drift. The twin aisle is in transition, has entered into uncharted territory as each customer is watching the other. A signal by Emirates with its cancellation of 70 Airbus A350-900, is a troubling signal for Airbus as it sees the Boeing 777X order finalized prior to the show. The preshow order signing is kindness given to Airbus, as it now will not suffer as much humiliation during the show, since the 150 777X order is not the topic of discussion. The Farnborough show does have room for another shoe to drop on Airbus, as it could have another Middle East Customer emerge with Boeing with a change of heart order for the 777X's. That remains to be seen, which makes this Farnborough worth paying attention to, during the next two weeks are the "what ifs" in play, and follow-up analysis will give many writer an occupation of blogging afterwards. Finally, duo aisle contemplation. Are there anymore 777X orders springing forth in the form of commitments? Twin aisle plastic will have some announcements, but not in the "Sea Change Category". I would think one more major order for the 777X is a "hanging chad" for Boeing that can be announced, as it falls into place during the show. The sway of what others are doing (Emirates) will call that chad to fall. They (regional competition) needs to compete, and stay on the order book heals of its competitors! This would be a call for action in the Middle East or the in Far East as the Arabic states expand into the Orient at a rapid pace.
Concluding Farnborough thoughts. This years show will be defined as the sum of its parts. It will conclude with a slight tip towards a gradual "Sea Change" event during the announcement segment of the show. Boeing is back into the game and is no longer in Airbus' wake. The show will have a few surprises but not a lot of surprises. Take those surprises and analyze against the bigger picture from the last two years.
Airbus banked up a few announcements in its showman style, it brings to the table every year. Boeing let its customer run the pacing of the announcements at the show, and continue its extended march to the top of aviation's pile of orders.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Airbus Marks Its Pinnacle Years by 2030, Boeing's Pinnacle Is Now Through 2030.
Boeing is not waiting for 2030 for capturing the market. It has set its sights on entrenching a hold on the world market through 2015 past 2030, making a pinnacle statement of world's largest aircraft maker in the midst of Airbus' former reign of being or trying to be the worlds largest aircraft maker for a couple of years. Every statement Airbus makes is now geared away from world largest aircraft maker, with a transitioning statement pointing towards, saying, " by 2030 we will do this". Does this mean Airbus is over 15 years behind Boeing in its aircraft design? If the answer is "yes", then they recognized they have laid-up short during the last 8 years with the A350 project, Airbus missed the mark on its superjumbo hub maker, and underestimated Boeing's previous tenuous nature, where the A350 does not compare to its newfound combative presentation from Boeing and its family of aircraft of Hub Breaker.
The 787-9 is really the "Game Changer", not like a prototypical 787-8. Boeing has changed so much from its learning points from the 787-8, that the 787-9 will please, astound, and change aviation more than what Boeing originally claimed during the onset of the 787-8 program. The 300 passenger 787-9 allotment of seats is about right. Its 8500-mile range is astounding and the innovation found on-board is incredible. Fancy seats on the A350 won't catch the 787-9, nor will the XWB motif sell more airplanes. Boeing has set a standard Airbus can't reach in 2015. Maybe by 2030, they will attempt to catch up with Boeing again.
As reported earlier, Emirates is tipping its hand towards Boeing, as a critical Middle East customer, as it dropped 70 Airbus from its order books and just purchased 150 777X 350-400 seat passenger jets. These jets pick-up where the 787-9 leaves off. The passengers will not be crammed-in while fitting out with 350-400 seat range, as found in 331 seated 787-800 or an A330 NEO type. The range, now that it is mentioned, erases the need for mega hubs other than landing in one, because that is truly your destination.
It means you can also go anywhere from a mega hub to small vacation destinations directly, on a sizable Boeing aircraft. The 8,500-mile reach in comfort is the actual start of a vacation until you reach the next baggage claim turnstile in the South Pacific. That doesn't sound A380 style at all since South Pacific atolls don't land the A380, where a 787-9 could. Should freight be the next 777X topic?
Top 20 Mega Hubs By Passenger Volume In The World: Wikipedia
The 787-9 is really the "Game Changer", not like a prototypical 787-8. Boeing has changed so much from its learning points from the 787-8, that the 787-9 will please, astound, and change aviation more than what Boeing originally claimed during the onset of the 787-8 program. The 300 passenger 787-9 allotment of seats is about right. Its 8500-mile range is astounding and the innovation found on-board is incredible. Fancy seats on the A350 won't catch the 787-9, nor will the XWB motif sell more airplanes. Boeing has set a standard Airbus can't reach in 2015. Maybe by 2030, they will attempt to catch up with Boeing again.
As reported earlier, Emirates is tipping its hand towards Boeing, as a critical Middle East customer, as it dropped 70 Airbus from its order books and just purchased 150 777X 350-400 seat passenger jets. These jets pick-up where the 787-9 leaves off. The passengers will not be crammed-in while fitting out with 350-400 seat range, as found in 331 seated 787-800 or an A330 NEO type. The range, now that it is mentioned, erases the need for mega hubs other than landing in one, because that is truly your destination.
It means you can also go anywhere from a mega hub to small vacation destinations directly, on a sizable Boeing aircraft. The 8,500-mile reach in comfort is the actual start of a vacation until you reach the next baggage claim turnstile in the South Pacific. That doesn't sound A380 style at all since South Pacific atolls don't land the A380, where a 787-9 could. Should freight be the next 777X topic?
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