Saturation of The Long Thin Routes Revives the 787-8 Discussion

At some point in time, the long thin route (LTR) types like the 787-9, 777 or A-350's will saturate this portion of the aviation marketplace. The LTR is closing in on a full inventory of aircraft, hence the A380 is hard to sell and the 787-9 vs the A-350 battle is winding down. It could be predicted the 777X sales have hit a pause point in its offerings as airlines are recalculating its own aircraft needs as this market segment fills.

There was a little-noticed transaction with Boeing and American Airlines when American slipped in 22 787-8's in the order with ordering an additional 25 787-9's. After some consideration on the subject of the 787-8 and the 787-10, it is apparent the marketplace has started to re-examine medium range again for its business plan. American needs to replace its 767 class of older airplanes and it chose the 787-8 for this fleet renewal plan for older widebody fleet units.

Airbus has invested in the LTR heavily with its A350-900's and A-350-1000's programs, however, Boeing made a pivot by installing production continuity from a 787-8 production going to a 787-9. All the 787 types assemble together in the same manner so no special production consideration is needed for building the 787-8 vs the 787-9. 

The second part of the Boeing pivot is the 787-10. It is not an LTR filler but a mid-distance and high-density people mover. It brings unrivaled fuel efficiency for its high passenger density. It is a natural for Singapore Airlines who ordered 49 of this type. The 787-8 and 787-10 can now work in tandem filling the 3,000-6,000 mile market, hauling a spectrum of 230-330 passengers with high-efficiency loads (fat market dynamics). Singapore just accepted its first A-350-ULR, holding about 162 passengers going the distance. This is a capstone for filling LTR market and few aircraft will be needed for the 16-20 hour aircraft endurance for which Qantas is asking the two big aircraft makers for flying from Australia to anywhere in the world under the moniker "Project Sunrise". Boeing will offer its 787-9 rendition with extended fuel capacity and less dense seating in the long body.

The fat part of the market is where the 787-8 and 787-10 lives. Boeing has repositioned itself while Airbus ruminates on its LTR capability as if some kind of advertising bragging is better than reality itself. The 787-10 is built for Asia. It is also built for continental travel. The 787-8 is coming back into vogue as the LTR becomes full. It's already within five years of that happening. I would expect orders of 200 for the 787-8 and another 100 for the 787-10 over the next five years. The 787-9 ordering push winds down as the market shifts back to the fat part of commerce with people moving. It too should book another 150 787-9's over the next five years. Remember, The Emirates order for 40 787-10's has not yet shown up in Boeing's book even though Emirates refers to that 15 billion deal as a done deal.