"Now what", is a good question? My mind has sufficiently recovered by blogging aviation's articles. Grammar was never my strong suit before my brain injury experience way back on June 1, 2011. This blog found a way for me to express thought and mechanical skills from a keyboard operation and using a computer for resourcing. It has given me an outlet for installing grammar and spell check. It also has given me a window on the technological world of computing and phone interface. In six years the world kept spinning while bringing us closer each day to a human outcome. Flight has been central to the theme of recording humanity's quest for perfecting anything it touches and sometimes with disastrous results.
I don't think another 2018 episode will be written, as I await with everyone, the emergence of 2019. I have noted a decrease in the number of articles written. It stands at about 180 articles on aviation for 2018. Some years have had more and some years less. I can only see a diminishing trend of fewer articles coming forward as my own mind becomes more choosy about what topics to write about.
Since no editors exist in my world. The product becomes a self journal over the topic of Boeing aircraft. If humor shows, it is meant to show because I love dry humor in every article written. The truth is that relative observation for what mankind sees, especially when it comes to Boeing progress, is also Winging Its soul. Boeing hires highly educated people for making the truth come out with a Boeing label put on it.
So far so good, I don't fly anymore due to a general health condition which makes going up in pressurized tubes risky for my well being. That situation does not stop me from dreaming with the eagles soaring.
I hope for every chance a reader enjoys my awkward attempt with writing on a tricky subject. My self-assignment of Boeing was an attempt to write one complete sentence without error on a keyboard. The trouble is I write thousands of sentences and some of them have errors and others are just fine. Slowing down on aviation is a natural progression like landing. I am on a final approach going 150 knots before landing on runway 2019. In 2012, I was just taking off. The last six years is a journal of one topic, aviation, and Boeing's contribution to that topic. My arch villain is Airbus. It too makes aviation a better place to reside within its inner workings.
My only regret from 2018 is not doing a better job on the aviation topic. My basic joy is writing about aviation. 2019 should be a great year for aircraft flying to and fro.
Sunday, December 30, 2018
"The Boeing Book"
This time of year there is a great pondering for all Air Geeks about how any year like 2018 will shake out? How many orders will Boeing book for the year 2018? A whole journal published on a weekly basis could be devoted to this topic. In fact, each weekly publication could have an Order or new model rumor section. It could have an editorial section on pending orders not yet in play and as a strong possibility of what happened. It also could have a standing order book that would report everything happening last month and YTD orders much like Boeing's own website has tried to but has miserably failed at really informing its Av-geeks of what's really happening. It's really confusing on how it tally's what is really going on in its industry and it shows.
I have a hard time ciphering with any degree of accuracy how it arrives at its real orders and deliveries during any part of the year but using only a brief subtotal from each quarterly report or a final annual report for a given time period, there is some relief on the subject matter. Yes, there is never a clear answer and that should be left for the professional guessers, the journalist but certainly not blogging!
A case in point is the massive speculation on what December will report from its monthly activity. Already the press reported 150 single-aisle orders from two customers, flyadeal and Green Africa (30/20 and 50/50 respectively-orders/options). Lion Air is claiming a withdrawal from the Boeing order book, amounting to about $22 billion in total. The aircraft number is for about 200 single-aisle not yet delivered but has ordered from Boeing.
The weekly article could summarize quickly if this is a repositioning its liabilities in face of pending lawsuits over the Lion Air Max crash, which so tragically claimed 189 lives just after take-off.
It could be claimed by Boeing, Lion Air didn't fix a known problem with that one aircraft before take-off and Lion Air failed to fix it or officially instruct its pilot on how to cope with an existing failure experienced from its Boeing systems on this "one 737 Max 8 from previous flights of this model type. Lion Air who has more to lose than Boeing from this terrible incident, as even one lawsuit will take Lion Air out of business, is vengeful against Boeing. It is in a corner and fighting like a wild animal for survival.
However, Boeing is at stake for almost 5,000 Max sold by Year's end, 2018. That is a whole feature article that should have been discussed by some journalist during December.
Another big article ticket item is the pending or hanging order situation. Emirates ordered 40 787-10 but nothing has been finalized for that extremely large order, as its right to not announce until a much later date.
However, a good beat reporter might find out the status of this LOI for 40 787-10's. That in itself is a major article fleshed out of the woodwork from a leased building near Puget Sound. There are many more hanging orders stories ready for plucking off from the journalistic low hanging fruit tree.
What about China? It is a weekly section devoted to what's up with China? Boeing is opening a final checkout and assembly center in a quid pro quo move with China for selling more aircraft to this merging giant having a population well north of one billion people. Boeing must counter Airbus and Comac within the region for China's wealthy aviation aspirations. Once again, China's lo hang fruit changes on a weekly basis.
Finally, why a Boeing journal focused just on Boeing? It's a lynchpin for the world's economy that's why! As Boeing goes so does the world's aviation market go.
Another feature would define its deal with Embraer and how it parries an Airbus thrust with its Canada's/Bombardier CS300 offering. The macro view of Boeing strategy is one giant chess game out maneuvering moves made by others like Airbus and Bombardier. The Embraer deal is more significant than just another merger. It defines how Boeing is in it to win it strategy. There is a big "independent" reporting hole with aviation reporting needing a counterbalance from Boeing's own selective confusion on its website and the world's idled scatter reporting on the subject. The press is selling space for advertisers as all self-respecting press centers do at the pleasure of Google searching for its readers.
A weekly Boeing journal would plug all gaps from reporting and aviation thinking providing a true analysis for what is happening in aviation's world with a Boeing emphasis to the subject.
Just saying, a weekly and independent "All Things Boeing" journal would be nice emerging during 2019 coming from the professionals.
A real book cover below, on the subject.
I have a hard time ciphering with any degree of accuracy how it arrives at its real orders and deliveries during any part of the year but using only a brief subtotal from each quarterly report or a final annual report for a given time period, there is some relief on the subject matter. Yes, there is never a clear answer and that should be left for the professional guessers, the journalist but certainly not blogging!
A case in point is the massive speculation on what December will report from its monthly activity. Already the press reported 150 single-aisle orders from two customers, flyadeal and Green Africa (30/20 and 50/50 respectively-orders/options). Lion Air is claiming a withdrawal from the Boeing order book, amounting to about $22 billion in total. The aircraft number is for about 200 single-aisle not yet delivered but has ordered from Boeing.
The weekly article could summarize quickly if this is a repositioning its liabilities in face of pending lawsuits over the Lion Air Max crash, which so tragically claimed 189 lives just after take-off.
It could be claimed by Boeing, Lion Air didn't fix a known problem with that one aircraft before take-off and Lion Air failed to fix it or officially instruct its pilot on how to cope with an existing failure experienced from its Boeing systems on this "one 737 Max 8 from previous flights of this model type. Lion Air who has more to lose than Boeing from this terrible incident, as even one lawsuit will take Lion Air out of business, is vengeful against Boeing. It is in a corner and fighting like a wild animal for survival.
However, Boeing is at stake for almost 5,000 Max sold by Year's end, 2018. That is a whole feature article that should have been discussed by some journalist during December.
Another big article ticket item is the pending or hanging order situation. Emirates ordered 40 787-10 but nothing has been finalized for that extremely large order, as its right to not announce until a much later date.
However, a good beat reporter might find out the status of this LOI for 40 787-10's. That in itself is a major article fleshed out of the woodwork from a leased building near Puget Sound. There are many more hanging orders stories ready for plucking off from the journalistic low hanging fruit tree.
What about China? It is a weekly section devoted to what's up with China? Boeing is opening a final checkout and assembly center in a quid pro quo move with China for selling more aircraft to this merging giant having a population well north of one billion people. Boeing must counter Airbus and Comac within the region for China's wealthy aviation aspirations. Once again, China's lo hang fruit changes on a weekly basis.
Finally, why a Boeing journal focused just on Boeing? It's a lynchpin for the world's economy that's why! As Boeing goes so does the world's aviation market go.
Another feature would define its deal with Embraer and how it parries an Airbus thrust with its Canada's/Bombardier CS300 offering. The macro view of Boeing strategy is one giant chess game out maneuvering moves made by others like Airbus and Bombardier. The Embraer deal is more significant than just another merger. It defines how Boeing is in it to win it strategy. There is a big "independent" reporting hole with aviation reporting needing a counterbalance from Boeing's own selective confusion on its website and the world's idled scatter reporting on the subject. The press is selling space for advertisers as all self-respecting press centers do at the pleasure of Google searching for its readers.
A weekly Boeing journal would plug all gaps from reporting and aviation thinking providing a true analysis for what is happening in aviation's world with a Boeing emphasis to the subject.
Just saying, a weekly and independent "All Things Boeing" journal would be nice emerging during 2019 coming from the professionals.
Friday, December 28, 2018
Becoming A 777X-Oh-phile
The 777 X mania starts during January 2019. When the engines get hung after the first of the year, there will be stories and photos. Then the 777-9X test aircraft rolls out the big doors there will be stories, photos and lots of Boeing employees. When the 777-9X takes first flight in the spring of 2019, three will be more stories, photos, and a live web stream of the event. The point is 777X insanity has already started for me and Boeing can't keep up with my insatiable appetite for "All Things 777X". I have a problem and have already sought help for this problem. I am a 777X-Oh-phile!
The self-help group didn't help. After I gave my name and condition they just said, "hello Trapper" and moved on to watching the streaming video of the 787's first flight. It was miserable watching something happening almost ten years ago while I am looking at a 2019 calendar cliched firmly in my right hand. No one can help until Boeing puts out another video on its Boeing.com Web site.
I went to DJ's website on youtube for some help, he showed (I watched after clicking on youtube) me his video.
The self-help group didn't help. After I gave my name and condition they just said, "hello Trapper" and moved on to watching the streaming video of the 787's first flight. It was miserable watching something happening almost ten years ago while I am looking at a 2019 calendar cliched firmly in my right hand. No one can help until Boeing puts out another video on its Boeing.com Web site.
I went to DJ's website on youtube for some help, he showed (I watched after clicking on youtube) me his video.
Let's Talk 777X
I went for the cheap beverage in the frig and it shows. If you haven't shaved nor will do so until it successfully first flies, then you are in need of a bath too.
I went to another 777X video:
This one is from Boeing
I have a problem and it is; I don't know when the next 777X Video will come out on youtube and Boeing is being lame on purpose as it knows any of the 777X-Oh-Philes out there can just "suck it".
Guy Norris comes into play and teases the 777X on a three-minute video. It just isn't fair Guy. You are a bad man not taking me inside a GE9X engine with real kerosene vapors wreaking havoc from my computer screen
Guy Talks To You One on One For Three minutes. You can just "suck the fumes"
Can someone out there toss me a lifeline and call a friend? I think so.
Sunday, December 23, 2018
Understanding An Automated Airline Disaster, A Sunday Read
This is a good read and it should cause everyone reading to ponder how the Lion Air should of, could of, and would of, prevented its horrific catastrophic 737 Max Crash. Boeing is setting a scary standard. A dependency on letting the systems fly and not the pilot in certain situations. It's a valid debate and it needs your thoughts.
Boeing has a technological fix on the future of flight and it should be asked, what if the failsafe systems fail?
Boeing Photo of The 737 Max Flight Deck
The National Business:
Cockpit automation may be jetliners' Achilles heel
Why flyadeal is a Big Deal To Boeing
Boeing just made a deal with flyadeal for 30 of the 737 Max 8 with an option for 20 more. This is a big deal because Airbus was in the hunt on this one and had a firm foot wedged into flyadeal's front door. Boeing won one for the Gipper. It beat the ever popular A320 on this one. It could mark a turning point in the sales war for the single-aisle, as customers have had plenty of time to evaluate both the NEO and the Max.
Boeing just announced it had firmed up with another airline, Green Africa for fifty Max 737's. Boeing may have turned the tide a while back and it's just now revealing a new trend. Maybe Max is a better aircraft for many reasons. Boeing is in a strong position to bait its customers with lower pricing than Airbus because it has been at this a while longer and it now can undercut the competition.
The trend line has bolted in Boeing's direction for single-aisle sales at this year's end 2018. A curious idea is that Boeing may have pocketed several other sales orders it will not disclose until later. It may wait until the year closes before another success is notched in its single-aisle belt. Each airplane maker knows what the others book will look like on early January's tally sheets. 2018 is setting a new trend and it remains to be seen if Boeing can sustain that trend throughout 2019 having higher single-aisle orders than Airbus. If it does outdo Airbus during 2019, then Boeing has breached the Airbus single-aisle stranglehold and the NMA will be announced sooner rather than later. This would become a decade's long setback for Airbus. Yeah, this week's deal is a big deal!
Boeing just announced it had firmed up with another airline, Green Africa for fifty Max 737's. Boeing may have turned the tide a while back and it's just now revealing a new trend. Maybe Max is a better aircraft for many reasons. Boeing is in a strong position to bait its customers with lower pricing than Airbus because it has been at this a while longer and it now can undercut the competition.
The trend line has bolted in Boeing's direction for single-aisle sales at this year's end 2018. A curious idea is that Boeing may have pocketed several other sales orders it will not disclose until later. It may wait until the year closes before another success is notched in its single-aisle belt. Each airplane maker knows what the others book will look like on early January's tally sheets. 2018 is setting a new trend and it remains to be seen if Boeing can sustain that trend throughout 2019 having higher single-aisle orders than Airbus. If it does outdo Airbus during 2019, then Boeing has breached the Airbus single-aisle stranglehold and the NMA will be announced sooner rather than later. This would become a decade's long setback for Airbus. Yeah, this week's deal is a big deal!
Saturday, December 22, 2018
Did Boeing Slight Lion Air Over 737 Max Crash?
Lion Air is trying to cancel billions in orders over a perceived Boeing slight to its reputation when its newly acquired 737 Max 8 crashed shortly after take-off killing all 189 on board. Boeing wanted nothing to do with the air incident in order to keep selling more Max aircraft and without having customers question the aircraft. Lion Air felt the dismissive nature from Boeing towards Lion Air was enough to stop doing business with Boeing.
Boeing is repairing the damaging threat from Lion Air by selling more 737 Max than what's on backorder for Lion Air's fleet. In other words, it is moving on while Lion Air's principle stakeholder and founder is trying to throw Boeing under its bus. No pun intended. However, it isn't as simple as getting out of a contracted firm order. Boeing will legally charge Lion Air money from canceled firm orders. It will cost Lion Air more money to get out of Boeing as a loyal customer.
An observer can offer solutions for either player at this time as Lion Air is shouldering the immediate liability with its flying customers and surviving families. Boeing might be exposed to lack of confidence for its 737 Max and then lose sales from that customer position. Boeing would rather have Lion Air eat the consequence of the crash and sell more airplanes to other and having Lion Air implode.
Lion Air does not want to implode and would like Boeing to die in its behalf as a Boeing problem. Losing sales to Lion Air may be the death throes of a dying airline position. They can't buy all the airplanes they ordered because of the crash. It happened to Pan Am after Lockerbie, Scotland's 747 crash. It can happen to Lion Air. The owner of Lion Air knows this and perhaps the early news is that Lion Air is about to shoulder this blame and it will cause its house of financial cards to fall as a result. That is why Boeing is calling in all sales deals at the end of this year. It must find about $22 billion in airplane sales order to replace an air loss from Lion Air.
If the crash investigators find a jointly responsible series of errors Boeing is too big to fail. but Lion Air isn't because there is enough evidence to point fingers at Lion Air and not enough finger pointing for Boeing's position. There are too many Max's flying without a history of problems. There are too many flight crews who have not made bad decisions while flying the 737 Max.
There simply is not enough supporting evidence to overcome Lion Air's position of a lack of professional acumen. Lion Air is on the way of becoming one of the crash victims. It may not overcome the slippery slope of paying out so much money to lawyers over this matter. Boeing has its lawyers too! If Boeing does sell another 100 737 Max by the of the year they may horribly say. Lion who? At this point, it doesn't bring back Lion Air's casualty of its customers. It's a terrible consequence of the business.
Boeing did not slight Lion Air over the crash. It is defending itself from another entity's problems while quietly fixing any problems with its product. Every traveler must understand any conveyance is a matter of risk regardless of how many times, it works correctly. Even going downstairs in the morning can not turn out well. The Lion Air crash brings us back to reality, not everything works right everytime and that's the reality that Lion Air is now facing.
Boeing is repairing the damaging threat from Lion Air by selling more 737 Max than what's on backorder for Lion Air's fleet. In other words, it is moving on while Lion Air's principle stakeholder and founder is trying to throw Boeing under its bus. No pun intended. However, it isn't as simple as getting out of a contracted firm order. Boeing will legally charge Lion Air money from canceled firm orders. It will cost Lion Air more money to get out of Boeing as a loyal customer.
An observer can offer solutions for either player at this time as Lion Air is shouldering the immediate liability with its flying customers and surviving families. Boeing might be exposed to lack of confidence for its 737 Max and then lose sales from that customer position. Boeing would rather have Lion Air eat the consequence of the crash and sell more airplanes to other and having Lion Air implode.
Lion Air does not want to implode and would like Boeing to die in its behalf as a Boeing problem. Losing sales to Lion Air may be the death throes of a dying airline position. They can't buy all the airplanes they ordered because of the crash. It happened to Pan Am after Lockerbie, Scotland's 747 crash. It can happen to Lion Air. The owner of Lion Air knows this and perhaps the early news is that Lion Air is about to shoulder this blame and it will cause its house of financial cards to fall as a result. That is why Boeing is calling in all sales deals at the end of this year. It must find about $22 billion in airplane sales order to replace an air loss from Lion Air.
If the crash investigators find a jointly responsible series of errors Boeing is too big to fail. but Lion Air isn't because there is enough evidence to point fingers at Lion Air and not enough finger pointing for Boeing's position. There are too many Max's flying without a history of problems. There are too many flight crews who have not made bad decisions while flying the 737 Max.
There simply is not enough supporting evidence to overcome Lion Air's position of a lack of professional acumen. Lion Air is on the way of becoming one of the crash victims. It may not overcome the slippery slope of paying out so much money to lawyers over this matter. Boeing has its lawyers too! If Boeing does sell another 100 737 Max by the of the year they may horribly say. Lion who? At this point, it doesn't bring back Lion Air's casualty of its customers. It's a terrible consequence of the business.
Boeing did not slight Lion Air over the crash. It is defending itself from another entity's problems while quietly fixing any problems with its product. Every traveler must understand any conveyance is a matter of risk regardless of how many times, it works correctly. Even going downstairs in the morning can not turn out well. The Lion Air crash brings us back to reality, not everything works right everytime and that's the reality that Lion Air is now facing.
Friday, December 21, 2018
SR-71 Stories
On youtube, you can watch SR-71 videos of its exploits but sometimes hearing the real stories from it designers and pilots are more effective than a youtube video about the SR-71. I have written before on this blog about the SR-71. But memories stay firm. It out flew the North Vietnamese flying Telephone Poles. It caused Mig 25's to explode its engines. It caused a waste of missiles and aircraft flying out of Libya over the Mediterranean Sea. The story goes on and then you hear it again on youtube in a watered down version. It was America's last great jet that did not carry weapons.
The SR-71 was just plain fast. I am sure America has built its replacement whether, in satellite or winged aircraft, there is something American made replacing the SR-71. It retired some 20 years ago from the NASA program, marking its last paid gig? The news today is about what replaced it not what it can outfly. The mention about the SR-71 is bourne out of admiration for what slide rule and test tanks can do so long ago.
The SR-71 was just plain fast. I am sure America has built its replacement whether, in satellite or winged aircraft, there is something American made replacing the SR-71. It retired some 20 years ago from the NASA program, marking its last paid gig? The news today is about what replaced it not what it can outfly. The mention about the SR-71 is bourne out of admiration for what slide rule and test tanks can do so long ago.
Here-here Blackbird and cheers with thanks
Boeing Could Now Breach 1,000 Airplane Orders in 2018 with Today's Announcement.
With Nigerian based Green Africa Airways ordering a 50-50 deal with Boeing (purchase -options), and another 30-20 for "flyadeal" of Saudi Arabia, Boeing has poised itself to fend off another furious Airbus late booking surge it usually uses to beat a Boeing order year. In all Boeing and its customers announced a $17.6 billion compiled order swing its way. Airbus will go all in sometime after the first of next year claiming orders for 2018.
Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights.
With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.
Boeing has changed how it tallies its order book. It only announces order book data once a month sometime in the second week of each month. It was a weekly reporting last year. The December order number should come out around January 10, 2018. Airbus' habit is to report its order numbers in the first week of each month. Boeing for 2018, is playing the order game differently this year in hopes of topping Airbus for order bragging rights.
With another firm 80, and 70 optioned 737 Max aircraft reported today, it would bring Boeing's net order book count to 770 firm orders. Just 230 units shy of 1,000 ordered for 2018. It is within reach if Boeing has several more mega orders in its hip pocket it has been working on.
Thursday, December 20, 2018
It's Time To Link To Boeing's Financials
The end of the year is near and sometime in January 2019, you will be able to read how many more billion from the deferred balance sheet Boeing has erased by delivering almost 800 787's. Boeing has delivered 787units all time and 139 units YTD.
Boeing Accounting Considerations Link Deferred Balance is $23 Billion, A 3qtr number
It is interesting to note YoY comparisons from 2017 totals to through 2018 performances as one could derive how much money has been written down for every 787 delivered. A number could be projected for when the deferred balance is extinguished in the 787 programs. That would be a rough number but it would give you a chance to estimate when. Currently, Boeing has delivered 139 of the 787 this year it may end up with 142 delivered. Then after the year closes and fourth quarter numbers for special accounting considerations are factored in for the 2018 period one can estimate how Boeing is doing making the 787 programs financially efficient.
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Boeing's Plain Order Book Could Go North of 1,000 in 2019
Boeing has booked a net of 690 airplane orders without the month of December counted until the first two weeks of 2019 reporting on its website. I would expect that number to come out by January 10, 2019. Therefore, 2019 could include a rapidly expanding order book if it announces the 797 at the Paris Airshow in a mid-summer dream. It could possibly book 400 797 orders alone thus making a 1,000 airplane order book a reasonable projection for Boeing's 2019 count.
The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.
Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing. It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.
Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.
Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up.
The 737 Max program took a jolt when Lion Air crashed its eight-month-old 737-8 Max killing 189. The airline would like to blame Boeing for inadequate information provided on its aircraft having a new system without proper information. However, the jury is still out and it looks more like Lion Air had inadequate personnel from the ground up and it sent an unworthy aircraft to its doom with all people onboard dying. Lion Air has announced it will cancel its outstanding order for the Max program as a reaction to Boeing's position on the matter. No other carrier having the Max has experienced a similar catastrophe and it has not been reported to date that other airlines are having difficulty with its 737 Max aircraft to this extent. I expect more 737 Max orders if no conclusion is reached in the next few months concerning its crash. Lion Air is in trouble on this one and it may not be able to even order more aircraft without stiff financial help or confidence.
Embraer has now entered the Boeing family beyond the handshake level after signing papers and taking $4 billion from Boeing. It can expand with a Boeing aspiration in 80/20 joint commercial airplane venture. Boeing has essentially bought a highly successful airplane building program for $4 billion and with it comes the engineers it needs to build the 797 sooner rather than later. the 7/80/7/7 venture gives Airbus a jab in the shorts regarding the small end of the airplane market. The Airbus Bombardier could end up being a boat anchor for Airbus as it absorbs the CS300 program. Its program health is sound for a quality Canadian product but very limited in the big scheme of aviation.
things.
Boeing is leasing 58 more/less acres at Paine field under the pretense of more airplane storage needed and a footnote where it could convert some of the space to manufacturing when needed. The lot lays just adjacent to the runway. A similar position found in Renton Washington at the 737 manufacturing plant. It's getting to feel a lot like Christmas for the 797 execs residing in an office building somewhere in Seattle, Wa.
Boeing is becoming a Juggernaut it always pretended to be growing up.
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
Still Writing An Internet Book "Skalkaho" Enjoy it ,Will Take You To A Place You haven't Visited.
Here is a link staring with chapter 8.
It's up to chapter thirteen in the very rough draft form. You could say it is there and a lot of editing to go but that is phase two of writing. Taking a second crack with improving the storyline. Right now just done getting the story first is the goal. I post this here in Winging It because the most time is spent on aviation blogging. Writing a story is a break from airplanes.
Here other chapters from the beginning were you bookmark the chapters for your own referencing
Monday, December 17, 2018
If You Didn't See Newcom Coming Then You Weren't Watching Embraer
Boeing Has finished signing the joint venture project with Embraer were Boeing has an 80% share of Embraer, thus paving a way for the 797 programs as the sweetener. Boeing will combine efforts with the Brazilian aero giant for its unannounced launch of the 797. Expect a Paris airshow announcement with both Boeing and Embraer sharing the Airshow microphone when details will spill out over the show. Latin America will be a big customer for the 797 as Embraer engineers will come North with wifi and people in tow.
The die has been a cast, there is a Boeing NMA, Virginia, and Merry Christmas to boot.
Corporate headquarter will remain in Brazil for the sub 150 seat aircraft and Boeing will move jobs North from Embraer for the making of the 797. Don't lose sleep in Seattle, the 797 is primed for Everett, Wa. at the least. Boeing is counter punching Airbus from its recent acquisition of Bombardier. The air war just got intense on three continents Europe, North America, and South America. Delta Airlines is a big Bombardier customer since it just announced its purchase of small airport aircraft. However, Delta is a big fan of the NMA 797 concept and it may be its launch customer. Delta's business plan will accept both Embraer's and Bombardier's offerings.
An expectation in the industry has been set. Boeing is here to fight for its market with product coming for many corners of the earth. A new Boeing completion center in China has just been completed. Airbus has very little counter punching effect on Boeing at this time. Boeing is really being aggressive after Airbus has stolen the march on Boeing with the A-321 middle of its own market aircraft. Boeing will counter with the 797 hoping to block the Airbus A-330 at the top end of the middle and blocking any A-321's at the low end of the middle. So it will build a 230-270 seat airplane type using additional resources from Embraer but making it a fit for all Boeing aircraft classes. The Embraer type smaller 195 types will fly more like a Boeing layout in time but it will have what people like about the Embraer product.
The die has been a cast, there is a Boeing NMA, Virginia, and Merry Christmas to boot.
Corporate headquarter will remain in Brazil for the sub 150 seat aircraft and Boeing will move jobs North from Embraer for the making of the 797. Don't lose sleep in Seattle, the 797 is primed for Everett, Wa. at the least. Boeing is counter punching Airbus from its recent acquisition of Bombardier. The air war just got intense on three continents Europe, North America, and South America. Delta Airlines is a big Bombardier customer since it just announced its purchase of small airport aircraft. However, Delta is a big fan of the NMA 797 concept and it may be its launch customer. Delta's business plan will accept both Embraer's and Bombardier's offerings.
An expectation in the industry has been set. Boeing is here to fight for its market with product coming for many corners of the earth. A new Boeing completion center in China has just been completed. Airbus has very little counter punching effect on Boeing at this time. Boeing is really being aggressive after Airbus has stolen the march on Boeing with the A-321 middle of its own market aircraft. Boeing will counter with the 797 hoping to block the Airbus A-330 at the top end of the middle and blocking any A-321's at the low end of the middle. So it will build a 230-270 seat airplane type using additional resources from Embraer but making it a fit for all Boeing aircraft classes. The Embraer type smaller 195 types will fly more like a Boeing layout in time but it will have what people like about the Embraer product.
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Now Financial Markets Are Saying 797
BOEING WILL LAUNCH ITS 797, A PLANE PASSENGERS WILL LOVE, SAY ANALYSTS
AirlinesRatings Photo
Cross section of Boeing’s 7J7 of 1989 is similar to what the 797 will look like
Call me: I'll be in Paris.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Lion Air's 737 Max Crash Hot Potato
Amongst the crash data lies some
truth of why Lion Air's new 737 Max-8 crashed killing 189 trusting souls. The
tragedy is real but who’s to blame? Or better yet who has the most to lose
finding answers?
Boeing would like Lion Air operational incompetence to headline the investigation. Lion Air would like Boeing to shoulder the blame and customers placing a claim against those with the deepest pockets. So the investigation remains in no-man’s land where Lion Air threatens to cancel its huge order with Boeing with many, many, more Max on the order cancelation line.
The airplane flew successfully for several months before any indication there was a flaw or mishap was about to happen. It is also known that a prior flight had indicated a problem, but the crew was savvy enough to conduct work-arounds mitigating flight behavior problems before safely landing. Into the shop this 737 Max went. The maintenance crew, who were newly introduced to the advanced 737 replaced a sensor part. The flying crew were not fully aware of the problem or how to do a work-around as the prior crew had managed when it flew into the same behavior of rapid nose down descent as the later flight was directed by software or a system failure went it crashed.
Whose fault was it? That is the big multi-billion dollar question. The answer will come in time and much more time as if time will dilute the impact for either Boeing or Lion Air. By the way, Boeing will offer a further discount to Lion Air before it can cancel its order and Boeing delivers its backlogged order from Lion Air. But blame has to be assigned first and that's what time is for, assigning blame where no one is driven out of business over the loss of 189 passengers.
The time is 2019, the blame goes to an unprinted a manual update and sloppy maintenance or training for the 737 Max no one else seems to chime in about having any problems. Unless a news report has been missed the Max keeps flying without any indication of a problem Lion Air experienced. The dangerous game is afoot. Assuming it was a one-off mishap, which there is blame to go around to everybody having some kind of consequential impact in the investigation. Lion Air will cancel its threat to cancel its Boeing order. Boeing will give Lion Air further discounts on its order when it pays out to injury family members who lost somebody on that flight. No one wants to go out of business and no one wants not to be compensated and finally no one wants to take the blame.
Let's just say the crashed Lion Air flight problem has been found in many levels throughout the aviation market chain and only the dead cannot feel the pain at this time. I'm so sorry that, “to error is human" and bad things happen to everyone at some point! The biggest dog in this situation will pay with little fanfare demonstrated. It's a hot potato no one wants to handle.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Exostructure, an Aviation Dream
Building something without adequate support requires an exostructure for its existence. Much like the crab that has an exoskeleton wrapping its inerds with a hard exterior, a commercial airplane must also also have a hardshell around it in order to survive. Boeing has just announced it will make available a 777X BBJ without a market. It lacks a exostructure or a true market or an order for it to exist. Therefore orders represent an "Exostructure".
Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use.
However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X. An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!
Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.
A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.
A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.
Part of the Exo support is airports capable of landing this behemoth. The folding wings is a clue. The Exostructure are found in the wings in this case. The 777X BBJ can land at any selfrespecting larger airport. It hasn't been shown how short of a runway it can land on. That will be found out in testing during 2019. The timing may be right as the US could be considering an Airforce-1 may be a 777X BBJ modified for presidential use.
However, potential, is that softshell mebrane that wraps an idea in its infancy. That's what Boeing has with its 777X BBJ concept just launched. Any national president or Bill Gates type can order one for $3/4 of a billion with upgrades included. The hardshell is that "exo order" allows the jet to live. The 777X BBJ gestation period is not defined as long as Boeing builds the 777-8X or 777-9X. An analyst will quip, "that's alot of oil pumped out of a lot sand. Let's go pound some sand"!
Boeing believes it has an exostructure to support a 777X BBJ. It may come by it with a half dozen orders. Super states are the likely suspects along with an oil kingdom in the mix. Boeing wouldn't launch an idea without some softshell interest. Having that thought, it bears consideration, who that might be. The the question arises, four engine security over two engine efficiency. Let's face it, any self-respecting super-power can stuff the frame with all the latest communication and counter measures. The 777X BBJ would have room for file cabinets but a thumb drive would work in someones pocket as a terabyte pretty much fits within anywhere under the size of a coffee table coaster.
A four engine consideration burns more fuel and can go pretty far. A two engine GE9X engine will take anyone to the other side of the world while going East or West and then landing at the same location. Possibly the US has reconsidered the 747-8i AF1 order with a 777-8X workup. It wouldn't surprise me if it takes another 3 years before a first delivery of the presidential 747-8i ("AF1") or a 777X BBJ is in the works. A new president could mean a new order in a deal making venture with Boeing. After-all if it is good enough for the president of the US, then its good enough for a Chinese trade mission. Enough two engine excursions around the world has proven two engines are as safe as four engines. In most cases better than four engines unless there is some sort catestrophic mishap were both types would not have survived.
A 777X BBJ can just sit and wait for a "EXO" order to hold this program together a little while longer.
Saturday, December 8, 2018
777X Powers ON
Or as Aero Space Testing puts it,
"Boeing powers up first 777x test aircraft"
So goes the march towards its first flight. The 777X has become one gigantic poker hand for potential customers. In that some are holding its hand before making a play for ordering the giant. Will more 777X orders come forward for Boeing? Boeing thinks so, but to be perfectly clear, Boeing is depending more on "Seattle's Best Coffee" then a new 777X order at this time. It is nervous until this thing flies and bragging will continue making airlines flinch once more with a business plan for a jet holding 400+ passengers flying 7,600 miles. Could it go farther? Ah, yeah, but the airline would have to toss some passengers and its luggage for more fuel loaded, but the 777-8X may have already done that for the customer with its 350" seat configuration. Even if Boeing sends out a 290 seat aircraft it would approach 9,000 miles of travel comfortably and Qantas is ready to Punch on its Project Sunrise as soon as Boeing comes back after first test flight and says this beast is a modern marvel it can do better than what was promised!
"Power on", is a step in that scenario. Below is the 777-9X airframe thousands of hours before a push out for the cameras and Boeing employees crowding around the airframe on a clear sunny Everett, Wa day in about sixty days. That's right, only 1,440 hours for Ave Geeks to fix their computers for the big roll-out ceremony having a cheesing Boeing PR person speaking about how many things were accomplished to make this roll-out possible.
Courtesy of Aero Space Testing Published Photo of its Author
The power on step shown above, is to light up all electrical systems found on the aircraft as if an engine were hung on the wing and supplying its power. Do all the electrical components work as entended? This won't be the last time Boeing will light-up. Every time something is added, even the paint. an eltrical power on test will occur. The 777X won't fly until everything works and works over and over again. Power cycling this airplane is much like your home computer. Every time it power cycles it resets electronics or it confirms the wiring remains solid as intended. The first power-on checks for smoke, fire and burnoutof everything electrical as that is a common step for all new 777-300ER's coming off the production line. However, this a completly new design and the this airplane requires the power tests that are analysed and recorded for further study. Once those checks are completed it may fly.
In the mean time, other activitie from now until the middle of Frebruary 2019, Boeing will install the enterior components including work stations and corresponding testing equipment and its corresponding seats. First flight is for systems checks and over-all flight characteristics before the road of daily flying occurs for its year long testing period. Sixty days is not far off.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Data Fusion The F-35's Real Weapon.
ALIS was the big data kid on the block, Then there was mission data and finally adversarial data. Eventually, the repetition of take-offs and landings using military weapon loads had to be factored in.
A system in secret was developed called " C-3". This fusion of data had to tell the F-35 program players what part and what mission the F-35 is assigned. Defense One covers this topic. C-3 is programming for AI and predictive modeling well beyond a visual examination or situational awareness. Whether looking at a part or going against the unknown, it is framed in the architecture of C-3. It can and will tell the humans surrounding the F-35 its next move before it flies. Normally it takes months or even a year to render a solution from data for everything from bolts to washers. Now the C-3 company says it can do in a month instead of months. The ultimate goal would be under 24 hours in a conflict. It's a matter of time for this to happen.
C-3 will or could predict what part is ready for change out or what missile should be loaded for a mission, depending on what the predictive C-3 modeling reveals. It is simply the added value of the flying F-35 computer. In a perfect F-35 world it seeks optimal solutions for real-time battle situation heading the F-35 in a direction on the ground as well as in the air for optimal results.
The example is a mission assignment going to "X" and taking out target "Y" with the most proficient "Z" fully operational. The Lightning II is about to be militarized with the C-3 signature of supercomputing on-board or located from somewhere in California in a big "underground" building. The F-35 gives the F-35, oversight, for its every move from a computer to the team who will support its mission and further. It is too secret for this kid to know.
Simply put, it's smarter than a fifth grader type of execution. The adversary cannot predict what will happen when its trigger is pulled and the F-35 responds. The C-3 system moves the goals post as weapons are changed or become available while internalizing F-35 capability against adversarial systems and placements. A strike comes with an "I didn't see that coming" outcome. The fighter pilot climbs in and responds with its resources for the F-35 and its supporting players.
A system in secret was developed called " C-3". This fusion of data had to tell the F-35 program players what part and what mission the F-35 is assigned. Defense One covers this topic. C-3 is programming for AI and predictive modeling well beyond a visual examination or situational awareness. Whether looking at a part or going against the unknown, it is framed in the architecture of C-3. It can and will tell the humans surrounding the F-35 its next move before it flies. Normally it takes months or even a year to render a solution from data for everything from bolts to washers. Now the C-3 company says it can do in a month instead of months. The ultimate goal would be under 24 hours in a conflict. It's a matter of time for this to happen.
California company is looking to accelerate the Defense Department’s embrace of artificial intelligence, starting with some of its most important aircraft.
C-3 will or could predict what part is ready for change out or what missile should be loaded for a mission, depending on what the predictive C-3 modeling reveals. It is simply the added value of the flying F-35 computer. In a perfect F-35 world it seeks optimal solutions for real-time battle situation heading the F-35 in a direction on the ground as well as in the air for optimal results.
The example is a mission assignment going to "X" and taking out target "Y" with the most proficient "Z" fully operational. The Lightning II is about to be militarized with the C-3 signature of supercomputing on-board or located from somewhere in California in a big "underground" building. The F-35 gives the F-35, oversight, for its every move from a computer to the team who will support its mission and further. It is too secret for this kid to know.
Simply put, it's smarter than a fifth grader type of execution. The adversary cannot predict what will happen when its trigger is pulled and the F-35 responds. The C-3 system moves the goals post as weapons are changed or become available while internalizing F-35 capability against adversarial systems and placements. A strike comes with an "I didn't see that coming" outcome. The fighter pilot climbs in and responds with its resources for the F-35 and its supporting players.
Boeing Says,"Meat of the Market"
It's has taken a while, but I think I know and I get it. The long thin routes are not where the money is found but its the best advertising focal point money can buy. The other philosophy is for passenger demand. Boeing has built two aircraft for an answer. One for passenger density, the other for distance traveled. The 777-8X mashes miles, not passengers and the 777-9X is the inverse of that proposition. Therefore as the Australian Aviation has published about "the resurgence of the 777-8X order book".
Does it make sense to haul 250 of your "best" friends for eighteen hours in a tube? How about 400+ friends going 7,000 miles for 16 hours. Boeing has explored the market and came up with the 777-9X and 777-8X configuration destined for 2020-2022 entry into service respectively. So the 777-8X sales surge is not expected until later as its 777-300ER's are of age to retire.
The 777-9X, the Boeing advertising giant, will come out in 2020, as the first lever for retiring the A380 completely according to data and customer preferences. The A-380 is a white elephant that cost Airbus more than its pride. Then the true market crusher arrives, the 777-8X. It will do more with less, an "old" industrial buzzword from the millennial generation. The do more with less crowd is buying the airline tickets today. They want comfort and space and not necessarily 18 hrs of flight time, but it wants Fiji islands instead, from anywhere in North America. Sounds like a millennial concept to me! Or Boeing centric ner-do-wells prefer the 777-8X for another gap filler.
Flying far and stuffing the tube is an Airbus dream. The A-380 was that bridge which became too far from its profit engine. Stockholders for Airbus will scramble when the NEW 777-X's comes forward. Airbus sycophants will just have to buy the A-350-1000's as its traditions require. The 777-8X is a design which only a computer data program can churn out when finding the meat of the market.
The efficiency graph line starts high at take-off and then downward for about 5,000 miles reaching a point every mile flown at this point is at its highest efficiency and lowest costs and then at 6,000 miles it slightly nudges upwards until it runs out of the market. The Caveat is most seats are filled because it can satisfy the meatier part of the market. It's easier to fill 350 seats in the densest part of the market than 400 seats going halfway around the world from point A-B. The world's half is about 18 hrs one way or another and an airplane doesn't need to travel farther than its half. This is where the airline industry is today.
However, the other data says 95% of the market lies in the 777-8X's reach. That sounds pretty meaty to me. Boeing algorithms say so too. Hence, the 777-8X pops out on the graph somewhere between LA and Tokyo. The low flatten line of efficiency falls within the "Middle of the Meat". Most restaurants call it Prime Rib on the menu. Boeing calls it the 777-8X. Who wants to fly west going 8,000 miles to Australia and who wants to fly east going 8,000 miles to Australia. Now you see how graphs can work. Either way, the 777-8X fills that market. Who wants a bigger load (777-9X) flying west to Australia from LA and who wants a bigger load flying East to Australia from New York? Gosh, this is getting serious and airlines remain behind to figure this out.
Even though the 777-9X has a bloated order book compared with the 777-8X. Emirates, a big one airline, is the reason. It has ordered 156 777-9X and is the World's largest A-380's holder which is destined to a boneyard closest to Tucson, AZ.
Therefore, the Boeing graph chart has identified aviation's sweet spot. Twelve hours anywhere on a 777-9X and 14 hours everywhere on a 777-8X. More 777-8X sales are on the way once the first tests of the 777-9X succeed.
Does it make sense to haul 250 of your "best" friends for eighteen hours in a tube? How about 400+ friends going 7,000 miles for 16 hours. Boeing has explored the market and came up with the 777-9X and 777-8X configuration destined for 2020-2022 entry into service respectively. So the 777-8X sales surge is not expected until later as its 777-300ER's are of age to retire.
The 777-9X, the Boeing advertising giant, will come out in 2020, as the first lever for retiring the A380 completely according to data and customer preferences. The A-380 is a white elephant that cost Airbus more than its pride. Then the true market crusher arrives, the 777-8X. It will do more with less, an "old" industrial buzzword from the millennial generation. The do more with less crowd is buying the airline tickets today. They want comfort and space and not necessarily 18 hrs of flight time, but it wants Fiji islands instead, from anywhere in North America. Sounds like a millennial concept to me! Or Boeing centric ner-do-wells prefer the 777-8X for another gap filler.
Flying far and stuffing the tube is an Airbus dream. The A-380 was that bridge which became too far from its profit engine. Stockholders for Airbus will scramble when the NEW 777-X's comes forward. Airbus sycophants will just have to buy the A-350-1000's as its traditions require. The 777-8X is a design which only a computer data program can churn out when finding the meat of the market.
The efficiency graph line starts high at take-off and then downward for about 5,000 miles reaching a point every mile flown at this point is at its highest efficiency and lowest costs and then at 6,000 miles it slightly nudges upwards until it runs out of the market. The Caveat is most seats are filled because it can satisfy the meatier part of the market. It's easier to fill 350 seats in the densest part of the market than 400 seats going halfway around the world from point A-B. The world's half is about 18 hrs one way or another and an airplane doesn't need to travel farther than its half. This is where the airline industry is today.
However, the other data says 95% of the market lies in the 777-8X's reach. That sounds pretty meaty to me. Boeing algorithms say so too. Hence, the 777-8X pops out on the graph somewhere between LA and Tokyo. The low flatten line of efficiency falls within the "Middle of the Meat". Most restaurants call it Prime Rib on the menu. Boeing calls it the 777-8X. Who wants to fly west going 8,000 miles to Australia and who wants to fly east going 8,000 miles to Australia. Now you see how graphs can work. Either way, the 777-8X fills that market. Who wants a bigger load (777-9X) flying west to Australia from LA and who wants a bigger load flying East to Australia from New York? Gosh, this is getting serious and airlines remain behind to figure this out.
Even though the 777-9X has a bloated order book compared with the 777-8X. Emirates, a big one airline, is the reason. It has ordered 156 777-9X and is the World's largest A-380's holder which is destined to a boneyard closest to Tucson, AZ.
Therefore, the Boeing graph chart has identified aviation's sweet spot. Twelve hours anywhere on a 777-9X and 14 hours everywhere on a 777-8X. More 777-8X sales are on the way once the first tests of the 777-9X succeed.
Tuesday, December 4, 2018
The Bloodless War
The US and the Eastern spheres are fighting a bloodless war for the high ground. Currently, the S-400 missile deal with Turkey and Russia is the currently discussed battlefield. Winner takes or Keeps F-35 secrets. The loser may have spent hundreds of billions on an F-35 or the other could be rendered defenseless in a real shooting war. Turkey a NATO member raised the white flag on behalf of its partnering alliance members when buying the S-400 missiles. The purchase is perceived as a pilot hole into NATO defensives and those who purchased the Lockheed F-35 fighter.
When Russia delivers its first group of S-400 missiles the F-35 will disappear from Turkey. Russia has taken round one without shedding blood. The US will have to find other sources for F-35 Turkish made parts. A Big inconvenience which slows the F-35 development. The pattern has been set as the Chink in the F-35 program plan has been discovered.
In order to sell so many F-35’s to partner nations, the US dangled a piece of the F-35 development in front of every participating member core group. Turkey was the most vulnerable since it has ordered 100 F-35’s with lucrative participation into the program. Some nations will not be able to buy the F-35 on a quid pro quo basis. Nations like Australia do but are unlikely to buckle under to Russia’s enticing chess move selling S-400 to anybody with an F-35 position. The battle is afoot. The US is fighting back by falling on its foolish sward it had made when it sold Turkey 100 F-35’s and gave Turkey a prominent position as a contributing “build member” for the same 5th generation Joint Strike Fighter jet.
The US is seeking time by stalling the process while it builds an infrastructure replacing Turkey’s role as a customer and an F-35 resource. The US is telling Turkey to go ahead and take those S-400 missiles since you needed them so bad and we will not ship you “our” F-35. That’s right “Our”. The core partners are surrogate holders for the defense of the Western hemisphere. Russia is a lead player for the Eastern Idea-ology. Turkey lies wedged between the two Ideals and has now chosen the S-400 giving Russia the tap hole into the F-35. China will have to steal the rest of that technology.
At this time no other F-35 customer looks to play with Russia for F-35 secrets. The US chose an ill-advised position to go quid pro quo with its partners on this program development. Meaning, if you buy the F-35 we will give you a piece of the development and sustainment action. The other shoe is now dropping as a retraction of source F-35 participation in the program. The US has already found replacement resources for the building of the F-35 away from Turkey moving to participants closer to home. They have spent the last year getting this done. Even if Turkey cancels the S-400 Russian order for receiving its ordered 100 F-35’s it’s too late for them to play on the US F-35. It is a done deal, Turkey is out.
A replacement plan is already progressing.
However, the US can only implode the program so far but there are fewer options for Russia. Turkey was its main players and it is a failing play if the US is resolved to cut Turkey out.
The possibility is strong, the US has already won the bloodless battle against the S-400. If it’s rolled out for firing, the system will be decommissioned by multiple means not yet published at this time. The S-400 maybe be a dead duck already and Turkey makes a prideful blunder.
The line in the sand starts at Ankara, Turkey.
Russia loses the battle deal but it doesn’t stop them from trying to penetrate the F-35 systems. The F-35 must be really awesome.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Are We There Yet, The Rivian Arrives
Or according to Fox news, the children in the back says I'm only good for 400 miles and we need to play crowd is turned loose.
The Rivian is an electric SUV/Truck
The culture will change as the interface catches up with the electric motor popularity.
The Rivian is an electric SUV/Truck
The Culture of Demand is about to replace the internal combustion engine, read about this new modern culture busting electric conveyance. It will be a boon for "convenience gasoline markets" such as Maverick stores across the Northwest region. Imagine after 400 miles you pull in to a charging stall as the family has time to unload, buy stuff, and eat. The power charging may cost $50 but the stuff the family indulges on could easily run to $100 with a gross profit dollars running at 50% of retail sales. A true convenience store dream. Gasoline pumping takes to little time and then the money moves down the road in under 10 minutes. But wait, what about a half hour charge? The store has time to fleech customers from pizza to jerky. The Slurpee is revived!
The charging network is a question? Will Tesla merge with Rivian on this topic. If so the culture may change to electric and half hour charging over the next two years, The merge will need to join with a convenience store chain to make the transition before others will join the electric rush. I am sure Big Oil is keeping its options open for super fueling stations on this one.
The culture will change as the interface catches up with the electric motor popularity.
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
NMA 797 Is A Program Role Reversal From The 787 Program.
Typically, an aircraft manufacturer announces a new airplane and then puts all the build elements together in some kind of haphazard way. Please refer to the 787 programs when a shell of a 787 was rolled out on 7-7-2007 to a skeptical public. It took Boeing five more years to deliver its first customer's 787 in the fall of 2012. Much criticism was mentioned when Boeing couldn't deliver what it seems to promise from the announcement of the program in 2004.
Let's jump to 2018 with so many rumors flying about for an impending announcement for a middle of the market 797 aircraft. The pundits are having a tough time getting its arms around when Boeing will announce its NMA aircraft. All have concluded a 797 should deliver during 2025. Boeing has a "meh" attitude for the concept as it continues to fall back on its "we are in a study phase" excuse.
However, this site has long held Boeing wants to build the 797 airplanes first using proven design compared with all its years tinkering within the 787 programs as Airbus watched planned and implemented its A-350 during the longtime Boeing tinkered. This is a role reversal of how it handled its 787 programs back through 2004-2012.
The 797 should be known more of an electronic airplane of proven technology than a paper dream one like the 787. Computer-aided design has taken 787 lessons learned and infused onto a 797 CAD computer. Boeing's lame statement, "we're in a study process" is also doublespeak for assembling an NMA from its supplier partners through the production facility environment before announcing a program launch.
Did I mention launch customers? Try squeezing Delta, United and American airlines for launch customer answers for this 797 launch. Once Boeing decides to launch this concept, it will be announced after the 777X flies its last few test flights. The time gap will allow Boeing to build an NMA from 2021 to its first delivery during 2025. The announcement for this venture will come mid-2019 at an airshow near Paris.
The Parisian slap in the Airbus face will be the order numbers generated during the announcement of the NMA 797. No one will be shocked by the announcement but the order scope could be immense and that may cause some recitation work being done in the Airbus Pavillion.
Let's jump to 2018 with so many rumors flying about for an impending announcement for a middle of the market 797 aircraft. The pundits are having a tough time getting its arms around when Boeing will announce its NMA aircraft. All have concluded a 797 should deliver during 2025. Boeing has a "meh" attitude for the concept as it continues to fall back on its "we are in a study phase" excuse.
However, this site has long held Boeing wants to build the 797 airplanes first using proven design compared with all its years tinkering within the 787 programs as Airbus watched planned and implemented its A-350 during the longtime Boeing tinkered. This is a role reversal of how it handled its 787 programs back through 2004-2012.
The 797 should be known more of an electronic airplane of proven technology than a paper dream one like the 787. Computer-aided design has taken 787 lessons learned and infused onto a 797 CAD computer. Boeing's lame statement, "we're in a study process" is also doublespeak for assembling an NMA from its supplier partners through the production facility environment before announcing a program launch.
Did I mention launch customers? Try squeezing Delta, United and American airlines for launch customer answers for this 797 launch. Once Boeing decides to launch this concept, it will be announced after the 777X flies its last few test flights. The time gap will allow Boeing to build an NMA from 2021 to its first delivery during 2025. The announcement for this venture will come mid-2019 at an airshow near Paris.
The Parisian slap in the Airbus face will be the order numbers generated during the announcement of the NMA 797. No one will be shocked by the announcement but the order scope could be immense and that may cause some recitation work being done in the Airbus Pavillion.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Note Worthy 777X Day
The first flying test 777X finished its initial body join today as the photo below shows.
I would assume wire connectivity is going on inside and then installing its equipment comes next. To anyone watching the process you can imagine all parts and equipment for this first flying example are stored in warehouse bins. It is also noteworthy, a new assembly process for the 777X was implemented during this occasion and will continue until a run to the paint shop occurs. One of the interesting steps is: as equipment is added, it will be tested when power is applied. Then it will be tested again once the above ship is fully loaded and engine simulation of power is applied. It will be completely tested again once the engines are a fixed to the wings and fired up for its first low engine power run. So forth and so forth goes the testing before its first test flight during 2019.
There are two more coming down the 777X assembly hall for 2019 flight testing. A good way to imagine the process is if something is installed it be tested before any next step of the assembled aircraft. The "new build process" includes a slimming of the work process through the modular assembly and CAD techniques pioneered during the 787 and Max programs. The area shown at the lower bottom of this photo suggests space is ready for a row of engineering "cubes" which will be added before Christmas and will become operational for the next several frames coming behind this one. Expect to see tables, monitors and engineers at the workstations as mechanics will spend time "inside this aircraft" reading schematics and assembling its equipment with appropriate newly formed tools. The test articles will take more time to assemble as systems and equipment are installed for the first time. The process should include preliminary lab time where Boeing employees practice how the plane will assemble on the floor.
The 777X is almost ready for game time as the practice session has become a reality on the assembly floor. Every day forward from this point is a direct contribution to first flight as all other steps in its creation has been successfully accomplished. The GE9X engine has processed its separate testing regimen. The indicators published to date exceeds engine expectation progress for the GE9X engines. 787 technology is an already proven item which needs little time to conform to the 777X layout and its size. A "technology commonality" has already been proven during the Max program and should translate well to the 777X program. All-in-all, the above photo demonstrates Boeing is well within its developmental progress as it's no longer a "paper airplane", but the real deal coming down the ramp in the next 90 days for possibly its first flight by end of March 2019.
I would assume wire connectivity is going on inside and then installing its equipment comes next. To anyone watching the process you can imagine all parts and equipment for this first flying example are stored in warehouse bins. It is also noteworthy, a new assembly process for the 777X was implemented during this occasion and will continue until a run to the paint shop occurs. One of the interesting steps is: as equipment is added, it will be tested when power is applied. Then it will be tested again once the above ship is fully loaded and engine simulation of power is applied. It will be completely tested again once the engines are a fixed to the wings and fired up for its first low engine power run. So forth and so forth goes the testing before its first test flight during 2019.
There are two more coming down the 777X assembly hall for 2019 flight testing. A good way to imagine the process is if something is installed it be tested before any next step of the assembled aircraft. The "new build process" includes a slimming of the work process through the modular assembly and CAD techniques pioneered during the 787 and Max programs. The area shown at the lower bottom of this photo suggests space is ready for a row of engineering "cubes" which will be added before Christmas and will become operational for the next several frames coming behind this one. Expect to see tables, monitors and engineers at the workstations as mechanics will spend time "inside this aircraft" reading schematics and assembling its equipment with appropriate newly formed tools. The test articles will take more time to assemble as systems and equipment are installed for the first time. The process should include preliminary lab time where Boeing employees practice how the plane will assemble on the floor.
The 777X is almost ready for game time as the practice session has become a reality on the assembly floor. Every day forward from this point is a direct contribution to first flight as all other steps in its creation has been successfully accomplished. The GE9X engine has processed its separate testing regimen. The indicators published to date exceeds engine expectation progress for the GE9X engines. 787 technology is an already proven item which needs little time to conform to the 777X layout and its size. A "technology commonality" has already been proven during the Max program and should translate well to the 777X program. All-in-all, the above photo demonstrates Boeing is well within its developmental progress as it's no longer a "paper airplane", but the real deal coming down the ramp in the next 90 days for possibly its first flight by end of March 2019.
Monday, November 19, 2018
The Right Hammer,787-10
Building a home may take a half dozen different hammers. One for finish nails (molding), or one for framing not to mention drywalling and roofing activity. The hammer types keeping mounting per specialty or function. A big framing hammer comes in as a 16oz concussion on a nail head. Or also known as one pound the world around. There are 2d to 40d nails and varying classes of nail types within that range counting roofing, drywall, and finishing requiring different hammer types as well. This brings us to airplanes.
The two mega manufacturers have tried to cover nail use or passengers with different hammers types or airplane models. The 16d nail could be called the 787-9 for framing a business together. So what is a 787-10, it's a 20d nail or even a 16d nail for most routes airlines travel. A 16oz hammer could do in either but becomes more tedious if used on a 20d nail as would an 8oz hammer on a 16d nail pounding all day. Enough of nails and hammer matching and back to airplanes.
The 787-10 could be the hammer used all day accepting 300+ passengers (nails) while going 6,000 plus miles or in the center of the aviation market. Air New Zealand is weighing an order for its fleet renewal and for fleet expansion. The 787-10 is on the watch list for a decision by the end of this year. If it goes with Airbus A-350 it will be a complete fleet renewal with Airbus. If it goes with Boeing it will expand its Boeing types into different models down the road such as 787-10's or 777X's.
The two mega manufacturers have tried to cover nail use or passengers with different hammers types or airplane models. The 16d nail could be called the 787-9 for framing a business together. So what is a 787-10, it's a 20d nail or even a 16d nail for most routes airlines travel. A 16oz hammer could do in either but becomes more tedious if used on a 20d nail as would an 8oz hammer on a 16d nail pounding all day. Enough of nails and hammer matching and back to airplanes.
The 787-10 could be the hammer used all day accepting 300+ passengers (nails) while going 6,000 plus miles or in the center of the aviation market. Air New Zealand is weighing an order for its fleet renewal and for fleet expansion. The 787-10 is on the watch list for a decision by the end of this year. If it goes with Airbus A-350 it will be a complete fleet renewal with Airbus. If it goes with Boeing it will expand its Boeing types into different models down the road such as 787-10's or 777X's.
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