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Friday, November 10, 2017

More 777-300ER Orders = More 777X Orders

One critical point Boeing had to face was a diminishing  777 300-ER order book in front of the initial production of its new 777X models made in the same assembly space. Boeing needed more 777-300-ER's ordered before it could build its first 777X. The by-product of this sentiment is the unintended consequence of selling more 777-X's than anticipated because of the strength of sales of the 777-300-ER. 
The Dubai airshow next week will feature at its front and center the Emirates newest 777-300-ER delivered. This 777 will have a fantastic customer environment with its expansive seating arrangement, it wants to impress the world with this static display. Hardly a death knell for the 777-300-ER. 

Emirates may be up to something once again (2013 777X orders) and it will become known next week what it is.  It is also important to note that Emirates massive show display in the main pavilion is only a few feet away from Boeing's somewhat smaller display at the main entrance going into the show. The 777-300-ER should get an order nod at the show with some more orders. The pride of the middle east sits just outside with Emirates complete fleet by type on static display. The 777-300-ER it just received is a star at the show.

Boeing had a plan that it needed more 777's classics until the 777X made its first delivery in 2020 or possibly sooner. Boeing has about 111 classic 777's including its freight version to build and deliver until the 777X is ready as of October 31, 2017. It also has 326 of its 777X's on order as well. In total Boeing has an October ending backlog of 437  777 units it will build over the next half dozen years.

Seeking Alpha just reported; "China Southern Airlines airlines committed to the purchase of 30 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft and 8 Boeing 777-300-ER's..."

Boeing, whom is counting the days and weeks it needs to keep its 777 assembly line full, prices the 777 classic so low its an offer a customer can't refuse. Boeing is looking beyond the 777X entry into service as demonstrated at next weeks Dubai Airshow with Emirates' 777 static display. The eight 777-300-ER just signed for by China Southern demonstrates that a full conversion from the 777-ER to the 777X production schedule will allow for more 777-ER sales until full rate 777X production is achieved.

Dubai Airshow could be a 777 completeness show where Boeing will end up with enough classic 777's ordered and more 787's to boot. After-all Boeing is rubbing shoulders with Emirates at the main pavilion's front door. A second point is for every 777-300-ER ordered it will represent a fleet renewal opportunity for Boeing's 777-X's over the next 10 years. If airline growth continues as predicted, the 777X will dominate the LR Wide body growth. Instead of 326 units currently on order it could conceivably exceed 500 total 777X sales by 2021. Boeing will have made the production assembly conversion from 777-300-ER to the 777X and it will have been a success.

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