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Friday, July 5, 2013

The Arial Dog Fight Has Started With Boeing and Airbus

2nd Quarter numbers are out and Boeing flies out the door 306 copies for a mid year number.


Preliminary Score Card:






Mid Year 2013 Boeing Airbus
Mid Year Production Units 306 295
*Paris Air Show Sales 66 B 70  B
*Paris Airshow Units 442 466
Single Isle Production 218 233
Wide Body Units 88 62
* Does not represent a complete midyear number comparison.
This chart represents a snapshot and does not consider a like comparison 
for the past six months, which will be added once numbers are compiled.

What Does an aerial dogfight look like on super-eight  film?

 


After examining the war room chart this where the fight stands. Somewhere over the fish market in Seattle.



What Airbus does on its public pages is carefully crafting convoluted numerology on its charts. Always keeping a balance of total orders since the cows came home, making it difficult to interpolate actual numbers of what its doing year to date. They have at this time sold 9,000 + aircraft similar to the 737 line. It doesn't really tell you about trends, or changes to the line, just that it has taken a lot  of orders over the life of the program. Convolution allows sales teams to say just about anything about how things are really doing.  The trend line shows Boeing making a move increasing its production to out pace Airbus. It also lags airbus in the order book by about two dozen total units,. That can gradually change in the second half of the year as more -10's are firmed from the initial 110 787-10, were first announced at the airshow in Paris, but only about 50 are firmed up at this time. The remainder are in the process of becoming firm orders instead of MOU's. 

So the dogfight continues through various means of posturing, posing and presumption. The winner-take-all battle is far from over as it started way back 03' at the start of the plastic airplane wars. However, change is on the horizon.  Boeing will throw its big X gun into the fracas in late fall.  That will lever the dogfight making Airbus commit its hand in an all-out "all-in" position with its A-350 program. The entertainment will heighten when the 777-X comes to the dogfight. The widebody field will be littered with carcasses of torn up order books and paper floating around the room from past promises. I look forward to the next entertaining feature presentation at Dubai.  

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