Friday, March 23, 2018

American Cancels Airbus A-330 Order , Dominoing WB Market Into Boeing Hands

Airbus has lost two battles recently (Hawaiian, American) making anything Airbus sales says, a dubious comment thrown out to the press. Boeing stands to profit as American Airlines who already dismissed its Airbus A350-900 proposition has now dismissed its A330-900 considerations. Airbus is in panic mode at this time as the Dominoes begin to tumble around its own market effort for Widebody sales.

First, there was the Hawaiian airline conversion from its A350 order switching to ten 787-9's instead. Now American Airlines is canceling its A330NEO order talks. There are only a few Airbus A330 Big ticket customers as listed below and no longer ay A330-800's booked.

Ordering by American Airlines was dismissed "According to Flight Global" American Airlines A330-900NEO. Some 22 A330 NEO's were in talks along with Boeing's 787-9's competing. The whole point was to replace 22 of the A350-900's it once committed to but later dropped as it would not benefit American Airlines fleet efficiency plans. The A330 NEO was also just "dropped" in sales talks, suggesting American Airlines may order 25-30 787-9's when details are worked out satisfactorily with Boeing. 

The airline already has a fleet of 787's (-8's and -9's) in service with seven more 787-9 yet to be delivered from its original orders from the past. It is evident American Airlines is satisfied with 787 performance and it could not improve its fleet with an Airbus' offering of A330 NEO's or A350's.

Airbus Orders A330 NEO orders in question as of today:

  • Air AsiaX  66 on Order while talking to Boeing
  • Iran Air    28 on Order and watched by US politcal sanctions.

Total       94

Remaining Orders booked A330 NEO:

ALC                              27
Arikia Israeli Airlines      2
Avalon                          15
BOC                             2
CIT Group                    15
Delta                           25
Garuda Indonesia         14
TAP Air Portugal           10
Undisclosed                 2

Total:                         112

Grand Total:               208
(American's cancellation does not show in this listing.) 

The questions for A330 NEO's is for Air AsiaX because they are now talking with Boeing about its 787's and Iran is good at being just Iran having no certain airplane future. If and only if Boeing snags away orders from Air AsiaX then Airbus is clinging to its A330 NEO program. “If” Iran then goes off in another direction and Boeing then would not be an option while Airbus struggles to justify the A330 NEO program with its stockholders.

Airbus claims at this time, hundred's of A330 NEO orders are potentially a part of Airbus talks. Sounds like a "never surrender cry" when everything blows ups in its face.

Another thought, perhaps American Airline is supporting Boeing's NMA concept which would eliminate the need of an A330 NEO and the deal making is down to how many 787-9's and 797's does American want or whether it wants to be a 797 launch customer?

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The F-35 Chatter Is Reaching Fever Pitch

So many complaints and so few facts permeate the atmosphere as if the F-35 is unable to even take-off. China has better cropdusters in its J-10, J-20, J-31 family of box kites. The main complaint is its engines don't always work as expected. The Russian Su-57 can outmaneuver the F-35 in a dogfight. It is also quipped "what dogfight?"  The F-35 will have long disposed of the Su-57 before it can even do airshow like maneuver, oohing and awe-ing the fairground audiences who do love watching vectoring antics going awry.

The F-35 is close to fruition, so much so, the USS Wasp took 6 F-35B's on deck during actual Pacific patrols near China. That doesn't sound like a testing mission and upgrade load to me. The test, in this case, is beyond visual range coming from North Korea or China.

The adversarial scramble is for harvesting F-35 performance data using its defensive systems. Albeit satellites monitor the region by the US and it downloads that information onto the Wasp for its F-35's. If a conflict brews it will be in the US Congress who knows as much about the F-35 as the Chinese do. All the F-35 needs is an actual conflict to prove its worth. All this posing round about this fighter. War is a horrible condition for all people, but it's nice to know if the F-35 will do the job.

Some call the F-35 junk and others a money pit. The beauty of it all no one really knows until its way too late in a battle. So far the Red Flag score is 20 to 1 in favor of the F-35. That was way last year. Having the F-35B on the USS Wasp makes the Orient a nervous boiling pot suggesting there may be truth coming out of the tests conducted by the F-35. This latest deployment is a "Damn the torpedos and full jets ahead" for the F-35B.  Go ahead someone and send up a Guinea pig and see what will happen. The billions spent on it can be flushed in one golden bullet shot.

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

The Boeing 797 Is No Big Technology Push, But ...?

After "Flightglobal" announces "no big technology push" for the Boeing 797, the point becomes it's not about "Moonshot" technology installed in an unknown quality/quantity; but how Boeing will shape this aircraft, and how much it will weigh, or what engines it will use?

The customers will drive the body dynamics and Boeing's design team will mold the carbon fiber aircraft for optimal customer appeal. The carbon fiber, wings, and interior appointments will also drive Boeing's design team. This makes the obvious 797 changes adhere to filling its body to a dual aisle seven-eight across seating alignment for customer appeal ranging from 230 to 270 seats. A slight oval shaped body will follow as Boeing hinted. The already established carbon fiber frame is established by the 787 families of aircraft. The "Carbon Wings" may come from Everett's wing plant. However, the engines are from the techno mystery "booth", where both CFN and GE have a dog in Boeing's 797 engine fight. 

Technology will borrow from all the lesson's learned on the 787 program. Big windows, lower elevation cabin pressured (6,000 ft), and lighting cues will dominate the passenger area. The goal for Boeing is not building a wide body like the 787 nor narrow body like the 737 Max, but a Goldilocks body somewhere in between holding the desired passenger count Boeing and its customers require and will follow from the Boeing design team. 

  • The 767 model offers the biggest clue of a 15'6" (feet)wide body
  • The 737 Max Body at six across is 11'7" (feet)
  • The 787 Body at nine across is 18' (feet).

Simple math suggests the 737 equals 180 inches and the 787 equals 216 inches, 

and the Middle of the Market dimension is 180"+216"= 396" 's by further factoring 396/2 = 198 inches or a 16'.5" for a Goldilock's NMA body width. 

This is Winging It's AP/Math worksheet.

So the 797 could be about 16' wide with Seven across or eight across seating depending on the passenger load wanted by a Boeing customer.

A passenger law should govern airline seating for a passenger's comfort and health safety based on distance/time duration traveled and seat space provided. Thus not allowing configurations of cabins in a high-density fashion for distances traveled. 

Perhaps going 5,000 miles with 270 passengers would constrain airlines to only 240 passengers and seven across seating period! It would cause a level playing field among framers for selling aircraft and stop the passenger cramming insanity.

The body width on the NMA is an oval design tweak, which has to allow a comfortable cabin while sufficiently allowing cargo options having a nominal capacity. The goal of this aircraft is about the passenger getting there in comfort and not so much as a double duty passenger and freight hauler.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

GE 9X Flying For the 777 9X program

This is the real deal of over 100,000 lbs thrust on a 747 GE testbed. 11' 2" opening sucks more air than a big buildings air conditioning system.

Digital Trends Photo
ge9x test flight 1

A man standing inside the front engine cowling may only stand as tall as the engine's halfway point in the opening. He would most certainly touch the top rim of the 747 standard engine pictured on the outboard wing.

Imagine the wing weight on the port side causing the 747 to tilt towards its port during its lift-off. So GE engineers had to compensate the aircraft for a level take-off. Much like, in the old days, fuel tanks had to stay in the balance of the aircraft's centerline by often switching fuel tanks stored its wings while keeping the aircraft in the balance as the fuel volume depletes. Today's fuel volume weight is balanced by computers. I imagine this GE 9X equipped 747 has starboard ballast tanks to compensate for the extra 9X engine weight on the port side. It's that big!

This test program has just completed its first flight in four hours. All went smoothly checking off the first flight test points with complete satisfaction. The 777X program has achieved a critical milestone with this success. More GE tests will continue until all checkpoints conclude the initial engine operations tests later this year. When Boeing completes its 777-9X body these GE-9X's will be mounted for ground tests late 2018 and first flight later in 2019.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Perth To London Or Singapore To Osaka Japan

... Is a study with two different strategic projects for commercial airlines both predicated on the costs of airline fuel. The first goes 9,000 miles with 234 passengers on a 787-9 and the second carrier will go 3,00 miles with 330 passengers on a 787-10. The strategies use a combination of ticket prices and fuel efficiency for its respective bottom lines.

Boeing proposes a name your proposition with the 787-10 and Singapore Airlines proposes 49 787-10's for traversing Asia or Africa with one take-off from Singapore. If going far on a 787-9 with 234 passengers the ticket will go North of $2,000 per seat. If  going near-by with 330 seats on a 787-10 the ticket price may go South of $500. Multiply those seat prices at estimated ticket value times the seats and a revenue flight will look like these results. 234 Seats x's $2,200 = $234,000 and 330 seats x's $500 seats = $165,000.

The seat mile 787-9 revenue factor would look like this: 234/9,000= .106 and the seat/mile 787-10 revenue factor would be 330/3000 = .111. As you see both have a similar revenue factors but the 787-10 to Osaka burns significantly less fuel and will gain a larger profit potential with this strategy. 

Singapore Airlines has ordered 49 787-10's for its fleet. Draw a 5,000 mile circle around Singapore and see the high density city pairings found with its higher performing seat/mile machine.

Over half of Earth's population is within range of Singapore's' 787-10 fleet and that's a big number. This includes India, China and even into Africa. The 5,000 mile circle is immense and that is why Singapore bought the 787-10 in a large quantity. The 787-10 can fly another 1,500 miles than the 5,000 miles in this example. The world is watching to see what happens when Singapore launches its 787-10's, especially the middle eastern air force of Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. Why buy a 787-9 Singapore? when they could buy Boeing in ten years flying its 787-10's flying over half the world's people.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Boeing Post 1,300 Since September 2012 Jon Ostrower

I never thought I'd reach 1,300 posts back in 2012. Never thought I would live so long either. It’s good to see Jon Ostrower blogging again since he is my inspiration from the beginning. He held a supremely well insightful Blog on the 787, back in the heady days of announced miracles in manufacturing as Boeing stumbled its way towards its 787 Moonshot. He showed how it would come together as it happened. This blog is a feeble attempt of mimicking his own pursuit of the elusive 787 program. The inside information obtained during those days reflected Jon's own talent for piecing together this airplane. Now that the 787 program sees the financial light at the end of the tunnel, Jon has returned to his roots of blogging for I am guessing, "a little while". He has graced the Wall Street Journal with his insight and most recently CNN at it has turned its big business eye towards its own purpose and left Jon aside but as he indicated his love for aviation and big ideas is close by. The Blog Site link is Jon

Image result for Jon ostrower
Jon Ostrower

Whether he reads this tribute is not important as we are ships passing in the night sky with asymmetrical blinking from wing tips flying by each other. The important point is to follow his blog because his valued lessons learned in the aviation business transcends all continents at the head of the aviation pack. He refers to Mary Kirby at "Runway Girl" as one who supported his trajectory as he aspired in the aviation news industry. When someone has that "it" factor you know it. For this 1,300th blog, I will dedicate this simple contribution to his budding family and his care for them. I can't wait to hear from him as the 777X program unfolds and the 797 takes off. Of course, the 737 will be remade after the 797 sells another 2,000 units to happy customers. I may not be around for those events, but I am counting on Jon Ostrower to lead the way for all other dreamers who dare to dream skyward.

Boeing Orders 2018 Including February

The additions include 14-787-8F's and 4-767 for UPS. There where another 10 737's of which two where Identified as TUI Travel. It appears unidentified customer(s) converted from NG to Max for 7 frames, In total, a net of 34 airplanes are booked YTD for Boeing Co. 

Note: not included where the 25 firmed 787-9's ordered by Turkish Airlines this March.

Monday, March 12, 2018

Jon Ostrower's 797

When those in the "know weigh-in it becomes time to speculate with some knowledgeable wisdom or just some Wild A. Guessing. Winging IT talks about what Jon Ostrower surmises.

The 797 rendering is a logical procession in its advanced technology. Boeing will use what it uses best, its own stuff.

The  797 Renderings BY:
 Jon Ostrower on his welcome back blog.  Please link to John's blog as he will soon become a valued contributor at another aviation site. This is a great opportunity for aviation fans following a knowledgeable contributor. 

So, what might Boeing’s ‘Atlantic Fragmenter’ become?

Jon Ostrower's photo of:

Ostrower recognizes a 767 front snout and windows, a 787 like body composite and wings and a 737 tail cone. The oval is not dead! It is a plausible concept attracting all 767 fans and 787 aficionados.

Saturday, March 10, 2018

The 797 Cargo Conundrum

China wants cargo space when Boeing designed passenger space using an oval shape allowing a wide cabin for 250 passengers. China wants a Swiss Army knife style that hauls both passengers and freight at the same time. Boeing customers, such as Delta, want passengers for its 797. The China market is the fastest growing region of untapped commerce on the planet at this time. Both Delta and United are fickle for future airplane sales. Airbus is looking for a market stopping answer to Boeing's 797 proposals. If Boeing goes passenger in an oval shape then Airbus will go to a traditional body circle for its designs thus allowing both freight and passenger service for its potential customers in China.

The conundrum is for Boeing, not Airbus. Boeing could re-engine the 767 for freight and for its passengers hoping to snag a large Chinese order. That risk is too much for Boeing's canceled 767 passenger program. Boeing will not make two different 797 models, one for passengers only and another for passengers with a freight capacity. There is no solution for Boeing, in this case, it will build the passenger oval 797 hoping for at least two thousand orders while leaving the Asian market to an A-330 NEO like Airbus offering. Building a 787 light version for the 797 program is not advisable or should be considered unless copious numbers of orders exist for a 787 light version.

 Extreme Oval Design With Freight
Image result for oval airplane body

Frigate Ecojet (Фрегат Экоджет)

Russia's version came before the 797 concepts: Pictured below.

Frigate Ecojet (Фрегат Экоджет)

Boeing has the orders for a 797 start, but the number is way short of where it sees its financial targets before announcing. It probably has about  400 797 promises at this time but it would have to reach a thousand units committed before going all in on a 797 flying oval. It needs China in its battle with Airbus, Airbus needs China to save its widebody bottom end of the A-330/350 family. An A-360 or whatever is on the horizon from Airbus. The 797 was supposed to be a killer shot plugging the A-321 NEO. Instead, the game of aviation leapfrog will continue for both makers trading off model against the model for years to come.

A concluding sentiment is for Boeing. Build the 797 flying oval and well above its competition capability, Airbus. China does need to move passengers at this segment in time. The option for freight service by the 767 (i.e. FedEx, UPS) is well established. 

China's freight needs will outgrow dual passenger level freight services almost immediately, and any other dual threat airplanes hauling both passengers and freight at the same time which will not serve its greater market but will only serve only in niche regions. The Gap airplane is not meant as a panacea for moving stuff but is meant for moving passengers up to 5,000 miles.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

How Big Is Boeing's Hawaiian Airlines Ticket Announcement BIG!!

Its only for 10 787-9's for $2.82 Billion

Boeing 787-9 "Dreamliner" to Join Hawaiian Airlines Fleet

Image result for Hawaiian 717


"Hawaiian currently operates a mainline fleet of 54 aircraft: 24 Airbus A330-200 and 8 Boeing 767 wide-body aircraft, 2 A321neo and 20 717 narrow-body aircraft. The company selected the 787-9 as part of a competitive bid process that also included the Airbus A330-900. "


Hawaiian has long held a preference for Airbus product over Boeing as it expanded its fleet with 24, A330 aircraft. They had a penchant for old equipment so the Max aircraft would be a natural replacement for its older narrow-bodied aircraft. The importance of the 787-9 order with Hawaiian makes this a BIG get for Boeing as the North American carrier blinked at a fleet opportunity change for Boeing product. Hawaiian has a history of holding onto equipment for a long time such as its 20 717 narrow body aircraft.

Expect some kind of heated competition for a narrow body order with both Airbus and Boeing bidding over the next few years. So far Airbus has 16 A-320 on order with Airbus. Hawaii is an American Iconic destination for world travelers and the advertising potential for an airplane product is almost limitless. Boeing has gained a significant toehold on this Island paradise with this widebody order. It only has to crack into Delta's fleet in a bigger way. This is a Big Boeing Bash for its 787 family of aircraft even though its order for 10 seems small compared with other airshow type orders.

Hawaiian Airlines 787 photo imagery
An infographic on the Boeing 787-9 for Hawaiian Airlines. (Boeing)