Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Rolls Royce Repair Trent 1000 Package "C"

Rolls Royce has a unique jet engine situation for which it can't fix its way out of in a timely manner. It will cost them $100's of millions for a resolution. It surrounds its engine blades wrapped around the center engine compressor found on 787's using the Trent 1000 Package C option.  ANA is its top customer having 100 Rolls Royce engines needing replacing. It has begun this process which will take up to three years.

Having limited jet engine knowledge makes it better for keeping any discussion at an overview level which most readers will find enlightening. It starts at the narrow top of the symmetrical tree and goes down to the spreading branches near the base. The top, has two competing manufacturers, GE and Rolls Royce. Boeing chooses to have two engine makers because it wanted a broad range of customers who had GE or Rolls Royce fleets allowing for a purchase of its 787. Secondly, if an engine became a flawed concept the other engine maker could save the 787 program. Boeing has reached that Plan B status as the Rolls has hit a bump, and it's not as simple as swapping out Rolls Royce for a GE. It's not a literal plug and play change and the ground crew servicing a "Rolls" are not typically trained for both engine makers.

The problem starts with decomposing fan blades which is the workhorse of the jet engine for pushing air through it. Without the blades, the engine simply won't work at any altitude. The blade degradation is a serious issue. Spinning a fan blade is way more effective than spinning sticks when trying to move air.

Below photo: Fan Blades halfway there for becoming a major engine failure.
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The carbon fiber resins crack apart as optimal RPMs are reached, thus suffering a catastrophic engine power failure and endangering long-range routes on the "C" package engines from Rolls Royce.

MRO Network Photo Below:

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The double edge sword view: airlines with Rolls Royce "C's" could face the cost of regrouping with GE engines, thus becoming too cost prohibitive for any operation, stressing an end for a  Rolls Royce 787 engine run. Otherwise, it will also have to pay millions for any fix of the Trent 1000 package "C" engines. Starting with ANA. The second option is what is happening at this time. Customers are awaiting a Rolls solution and that may take years while in the meantime, the FAA has ordered those 787's only a 140 minute flight distance to any airport or about twelve hundred miles. Routes need to bend towards airports instead of flying straight towards its long-range destination. 

A subproblem is having a Boeing 787 build processes set up for either the GE or Rolls Royce before engines are even mounted on a frame. Customers who already ordered long in advance for its engines on a  787, can opt out of the Rolls Royce easier than it could change it on a wing of an already delivered 787. Furthermore, it doesn't even consider the costs associated with an increased maintenance penalty for tooling and training of ground crews for a different engine.

Customers who have not made an engine decision with its backlogged order status have time to make an engine commitment change. Engines already flying are costly to repair or switch out with another brand, but it once again can be done at a great cost to ground operations for parts and labor already set for Rolls Royce engine maintenance.

Plan A is for Rolls Royce to change out affected parts to the problem with new parts that result in a permanent solution.

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Boeing Studies Its Plate Tectonics

Plate Tectonics, subduction zone, and tsunamis are what's up with Boeing. It isn't geophysical nor episodic but it does involve the Boeing 797 NMA announcement. The handwriting is on the wall. Charleston is destined to become Boeing's main family counselor for the 787 and Boeing needs space for building almost 4,000 NMA's and 777X's. Don't forget another ten years of 777-300ER production as freight and passenger airlines replace its fleets with those types long after the 777-9X takes off from Everett next year.

Plate tectonic takes the Pacific plate and moves en mass towards the east bumping the opposing plate in its way. Sometimes it bends under the more stationary continental plate in an arcing motion downward call the subduction zone. Some may even call it the Pacific Rim where the Japanese imagined monsters come from for full-length feature films plots.

The big 100-foot high oceanic wave swallows the west coast in one surge as the 787-8 moves to Charleston, SC. from Everett which is so close to volcanos such as Mt Hood, St Helens, and Rainier located just down the interstate for any worry about sea level. The NMA will need RCP materials and autoclaves. It will also need production space which Charleston, SC can provide by moving the 787-8 eastward and out of Everett. When the 787-8 moves to Charleston, then the 797 will be announced. The notion has passed the first high-end staff meeting. The 797 customers are lined up as if in ammo boxes waiting to be loaded. The announcement is just an airshow away to be locked.

Yes, the NMA is coming and the 787-8 production is moving away from the 777X and 797 NMA build space. I'm not Boeing and I don't sit in on Boeing meetings, but I do know "X" can't happen until the 7 Late 7-late flies south.

Saturday, April 14, 2018

"Giving The Middle Finger"... well it starts in the middle

Airlines and its builders now have a way for fitting three across passengers in a somewhat comfortable scheme. Its called the middle seat. A place which passengers can give its fingers a place to rest amongst competing passenger space.

The middle is no longer a vulgar gesture

The staggering proposition is seated with a bigger idea. Make the middle seat bigger than its other row mates will sit-in. Examine the above video link and then give your row mate not the middle, but what makes the middle the middle, the window or aisle position. You are the ultimate middle finger of flying more comfortably and others, well, the "sidekicks" can just suck it. 

Friday, April 13, 2018

United's 787-10 Offers 4 Seats

Flight Global:

"The Chicago-based carrier will configure the 787-10 with 318 seats, split between 48 Polaris business, 21 premium economy, 45 extra-legroom economy and 208 economy, a seat map published in the 1 May update to United's flight attendant manuals and shared with FlightGlobal shows."

The take from this article is United Airlines is going to offer an ala-carte approach for seat tickets in four classes. The back end of the aircraft is the usual suspects.  Economy!! See above and use your diet plan as to where you would be able to sit.

Thursday, April 12, 2018

American Airlines wants Its NMA

In spite of ordering 47-787 last week, American Airlines indicates a "strong"  interest in the Boeing 797 product, which has yet to be announced by Boeing as it refines 797 proposals for its select and potential launch customers. American Airlines will long have received its 47th Dreamliner during 2025. 

Flight Global reports, "The deal includes orders for 22 787-8s, which will arrive starting in 2020, and 25 787-9s, which will be delivered starting in 2023. Deliveries will wrap up around 2025, according to Flight Fleets Analyzer." 

The 797 will tentatively start first deliveries as Boeing's NMA during or after 2025 as it has a substantial number of 767's and some 777's needing replacing on some of its 5,000 nm routes and will come off active duty from fleet aging conditions by 2025 and beyond. The NMA would likely slot-in behind those retirements at that time.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

How's It Going In April Boeing ????

So Far so Good as... at least 185 are in the deal mode for Boeing as of April 12, 2018.

Boeing Airbus Backlog Comparison

Here it is Boeing is closing the gap on Airbus in Both units and $$. Production has reached parity for both manufacturers, but Boeing has outpaced Airbus in orders during the first quarter of 2018. This, of course, reflects a list price per unit by type.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

March 2018 Boeing Unit Sales Report

Boeing finally reports a normal month in March excepts leaves Hawaiin Airline's 787-9's off the tally
sheet. Winging see clear sky's going forward with its bookings as some "big" orders yet remain to be booked but also have been committed. Most are concerning the 787 types. Pre Farnborough numbers
make for a solid year.

Below are Boeing website reports:

As of March 31,2018 

Saturday, April 7, 2018

Now What For The 787 After American's Airline Orders 47 - 787.

American Airlines has now triggered a firm order for Boeing's 787 programs. It ordered 22 787-8's and 25 787-9's for a total of about $12 billion at list prices. It was the big break Boeing has chased since the merger American Airlines conducted when it had absorbed and accepted the former US Air's order book for 22 A350 in the merger.

Boeing was the victor after years of sales work bore this American 787 deal fruit. Not forgetting the Emirates unconfirmed 787-10 order for 40 and the Hawaain order for 10 787-10, which when booked on Boeing's website will probably push the annual bookings above 100 787 units for 2018 and give Boeing a 1400 unit program count which gives the deferred cost balance something to think about.

The "now what" for Boeing is finding another 100 widebody sales for 2019.

Boeing being bold, set a new accounting block at 1,400 hundred units before it would retired program debt and it is also announced increasing monthly 787 deliveries to a 14 a month pace. No one could predict if Boeing could pull off its pronouncement of manufacturing capability. The orders weren't there back in 2017. Then came Emirates in November 2017 for 40 787-10's and now American for 22 787-8 and 25 787-9 totaling 87 paper units. Hawaiin closes the book near a hundred units for 2018.  The year has 8 1/2 more months and Farnborough is yet ahead on the calendar!

Boeing long knew it had a plan coming together last year when it announced production increase to 14 units a month. The year has yet to play out, but it now looks as if Boeing has and had gained control of the widebody market which Airbus depends on for busting Boeing's game up. It looks like it will be a long airplane war for which Boeing has gained the advantage. The market death blow and for subduing Airbus could come with a successful Boeing NMA offering, aka the 797.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Yep That's A 787-10 AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail is Holding

AirAsia's Benyamin Ismail holds a model of Boeing's 787-10 during his short visit to Seattle with Boeing. Sounds like Farnborough becomes the center of Boeing's attention as customers are hoving over its widebody offering before the Farnborough Airshow 2018.

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